Congressman Criticizes Deportation Bet Market

A Democratic congressman has publicly opposed a prediction market that allows users to bet on the number of immigrants the Trump administration will deport this year. The administration had promised mass deportations with various targets, including 1 million removals in the first year.

Gaining access to official data on deportations has been challenging. The president’s supporters have pushed for the government to meet these promises. Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has offered different deportation totals as outcomes. It is reported that there is a 96 percent chance of over 400,000 people being deported.

In a post on X, Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton stated that the market on Kalshi was “disgusting” and urged the site to shut it down immediately. “Kalshi letting users bet on deportation numbers is as perverse as Polymarket letting people wager on the lives of our troops,” Moulton commented. “I was the first Member of Congress to ban staff from trading on prediction markets because human lives are not casino chips. Kalshi, you claim to be the more ethical platform… Prove it and shut this down now.”

Newsweek contacted Moulton’s office, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Kalshi for comments via email.

Moulton’s Immigration Advocacy

Seth Moulton’s stance on the Kalshi market aligns with his immigration advocacy. He has consistently criticized Trump-era immigration enforcement and sought additional legal protections for migrants. Earlier this year, he introduced legislation aimed at restoring judicial review for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) decisions, arguing for court oversight. His office has also offered guidance to immigrants on their rights during enforcement actions.

The Legality of Prediction Markets

The legality of markets like Kalshi is debated. Kalshi is federally regulated and registered with the CFTC, arguing that its contracts are financial products governed by federal law. The Commodity Exchange Act allows listed exchanges to offer certain event contracts, while federal regulations scrutinize markets related to war, terrorism, and assassination. The CFTC can prohibit contracts that are against the public interest.

The role of prediction markets, especially those involving elections, government actions, and other politically sensitive subjects, remains contentious. Some Democratic lawmakers have urged regulators to restrict contracts associated with such issues.

Deportation Data Under Trump

Immigration enforcement has increased under Trump’s administration. Analysis of ICE removal figures shows approximately 400,000 deportations in Trump’s first year, which is an increase but falls short of the administration’s goal of 1 million annually. Experts caution that measuring deportations is complex, given that Fiscal Year 2025 includes months before Trump’s inauguration.

ICE removals are only part of the picture. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Border Patrol also conduct removals. Reports indicate that ICE removals rose significantly compared to the previous year. This focus on deportations has sparked debates over whether the government is meeting Trump’s campaign promises, and that controversy extends to the Kalshi deportation market. Critics argue that betting on deportation totals turns a critical issue into a speculative financial product.