Trump’s Approval Ratings and Their Impact on Midterms

With the midterm elections nearing, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low in most states, excluding consistent Republican regions that still support his performance. Nationally, as of August 19, 35% of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove, resulting in a net approval rating of -24 according to Civiqs’ online tracking poll of registered voters. This poll, which began on January 20, 2025, after Trump started his second term, includes 124,759 responses.

State-by-State Analysis

The breakdown reveals Trump’s approval is low in the seven battleground states he won in the 2024 presidential election. With Congress up for grabs in November, even slight shifts in voter support could impact key races. In states like Indiana and Mississippi, which previously showed positive support, Trump is now in negative territory.

The White House dismisses the low approval ratings, citing Trump’s 2024 election win as a clear indication of public backing.

Why It Matters

Typically, a president’s party loses seats during midterm elections. This historical trend, combined with Trump’s low popularity, means Republicans are striving to maintain narrow majorities in the House and Senate. Meanwhile, Democrats aim to gain enough seats to gain control, potentially thwarting the president’s agenda for the rest of his term.

Where Trump Is Most Popular

Civiqs’ poll highlights Trump’s highest net approval in Wyoming, with 56% approval and 35% disapproval, giving him a net approval of +22. Other states in the Republican heartland showing positive ratings for Trump include North Dakota (+18), South Dakota (+9), Alabama (+6), Idaho (+9), West Virginia (+13), Arkansas (+8), Oklahoma (+7), and Montana (+4). However, in Indiana and Mississippi, his ratings have turned negative recently.

Despite the highest approval ratings, there is a noted decline from the start of Trump’s second term, where his ratings were significantly higher.

Where Trump Is Least Popular

Trump’s lowest approval ratings appear in Democratic-leaning states. In Hawaii, 18% approve, while 78% disapprove, resulting in a net approval of -60. Other states with low approval figures include Vermont (-54), Maryland (-52), Massachusetts (-48), California (-43), Connecticut (-41), Washington (-43), Oregon (-40), and New York (-39).

Trump’s Standing in Battleground States

Trump remains unpopular in all seven swing states he captured in the 2024 election. Any further decline in these states may harm Republicans in critical midterm races.

• Arizona: -13 (41% approve, 53% disapprove)
• Georgia: -23 (35% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Michigan: -22 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Nevada: -21 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• North Carolina: -16 (39% approve, 55% disapprove)
• Pennsylvania: -19 (37% approve, 56% disapprove)
• Wisconsin: -17 (39% approve, 56% disapprove)

In Florida, a state shifting towards Republican preference, Trump’s net approval still falls at -11.

Importance of Trump’s Ratings for Midterms

Trump’s ratings could negatively influence Republican candidates in the midterms, according to Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University. Presidential approval often predicts midterm outcomes. Widespread disapproval could challenge Republicans, potentially leading to Democratic majorities in one or both congressional chambers.

Grant Davis Reeher, a Syracuse University political science professor, argues that a president’s approval is vital in midterms, as these elections often reflect public sentiment on their president’s initial years in office.

Despite both parties experiencing low approval ratings, expectations remain that Democrats may perform well, possibly retaking the House.

What the White House Says

In response to polling inquiries, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasized Trump’s mandate from nearly 80 million voters to implement his agenda. According to Ingle, no other president has achieved more for Americans in terms of job creation, controlling inflation, and enhancing housing affordability.

The White House maintains that Trump’s agenda has already seen historic successes, both domestically and internationally.

If you need further details, contact Newsweek editors John Fitzpatrick and Shakeema Edwards for more information.