Iran’s Strategy: Sustaining Conflict to Distract Domestic Discontent

According to Dr. Majid Sadeghpour, a human rights activist and political director of the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, Iran’s regime leaders seem more interested in maintaining tension with the United States and its Gulf neighbors rather than seeking peace. This approach appears to be driven by the need to manage an increasingly disillusioned population.

Recent days have seen U.S. forces conducting airstrikes against Iranian targets after a brief cessation of hostilities. This follows renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Sadeghpour conveyed to Fox News Digital that Tehran is less worried about military actions and more concerned about domestic dissatisfaction.

“You get America to give you a guarantee that it wouldn’t seek regime change. Nevertheless, they still attacked ships afterward,” Sadeghpour observed. “They still targeted our bases in Jordan and Bahrain. So that highlights the fact that the real threat to the regime is not external bombs, but rather internal uprisings.”

The regime has faced considerable unrest in recent years, aggravated by economic problems like inflation and declining living standards. Human rights observers highlight that Iran deals harshly with protests, using lethal force and arbitrary arrests.

The ongoing conflict with the U.S. serves the regime by shifting public focus away from internal issues. Sadeghpour pointed out that despite agreements not to target commercial vessels, Iran continues such acts, provoking international response.

Vice President JD Vance commented, “I think that they’re losing their capabilities by the day. I think they’re realizing… that their control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively gone, and it’s a diminishing asset.”

For any potential regime change, Dr. Sadeghpour emphasized focusing on empowering the Iranian populace. The regime’s strategy relies on prolonging conflict as long as possible, fearing the population may question their governance once they calm down.

“The regime is thinking about the day, the hour after the exhausted population gets calm, and will immediately look around, ‘how am I going to get rid of this regime? And who’s going to help me do that?’ And so that is what the regime is afraid of,” he stated.

Former President Donald Trump expressed disinterest in negotiations with Tehran, stressing his lack of concern over Iran signing agreements. He commented on social media, questioning when the Iranian people would challenge their government.