Midterm Elections: Democrats Aim to Overturn House Balance

Fox News revised its ratings for 15 House races on Tuesday, shifting them away from Republicans. This adjustment comes as Democrats seek to broaden the scope of battleground states in the midterm elections.

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have reached new lows. With Election Day approaching, Democrats aim to win enough seats in the House to secure a majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats have 214 seats, so flipping a small number could change the majority.

The latest update from Fox News Power Rankings reclassified five races as toss-ups. Six races moved to the Lean Republican category, three to Lean Democrat, and one to Likely Democrat. With only six weeks until the midterms, these changes signal a warning for Republicans.

The toss-up races include two Florida districts, the 14th and 22nd, which became more conservative due to redistricting. Also included are Iowa’s 2nd District, Maine’s 2nd District, and Michigan’s 4th District.

Overall, Democrats are favored in 215 races, while Republicans have the upper hand in 201. Nineteen seats stand as true toss-ups, offering no clear advantage to either party.

Comparison of Fox Ratings with Other Forecasters

Fox News has fewer toss-up races than other forecasters like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As of Tuesday, both forecasters classified four races as toss-ups.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted three races toward Democrats. Florida’s 27th District moved from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Iowa’s 1st District shifted from a toss-up to Leans Democrat. Meanwhile, Texas’ 9th District changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Managing Editor Kyle Kondik noted the environment resembles 2018, a difficult year for Republicans. Despite no major economic challenges then, current big-picture factors could make 2026 even tougher for them.

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the House

Recent generic ballot polls indicate Democrats are gaining strength as Election Day nears. While Democrats have consistently led these polls, some surveys initially showed tight margins, suggesting minor gains rather than a significant wave.

Recent polling data offers a different perspective. A YouGov and The Economist poll showed Democrats leading by 14 points among likely voters, at 52 percent compared to Republicans’ 38 percent. It surveyed 1,401 registered voters from September 18 to 21, 2026.

Ipsos and Reuters surveys reported Democrats ahead by eight points, at 43 percent to Republicans’ 35 percent. Another poll from Quantus Insights showed Democrats leading by over 8 points, at 50 percent to 42 percent.

According to Nate Silver’s post, Republican polling appears to worsen, possibly due to rising gas prices or concerns about AI.

Liam Buckley, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, commented on the GOP facing challenges of their own making. He mentioned voters are ready to replace Republicans with Democrats in the House majority.

Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment via email.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are showing Democrats as favorites to regain control of the House. As of Tuesday, Democrats had a 91 percent chance on Kalshi and a 93 percent chance on Polymarket.

These figures represent a shift compared to previous months. Estimates from Kalshi showed Democrats with an 85 percent chance just one month prior and 77 percent chance at the beginning of the year.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes, aggregating wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders respond to polls, fundraising efforts, and broader political trends. While they measure sentiment at the moment, they do not always predict the future accurately.

A Look at Recent House Elections

Recent House elections have been competitive, with 2018 marking a significant victory for Democrats. That year, Democrats won numerous seats during Trump’s first-term midterms.

Here is a summary of recent elections:

• 2016: Republicans won the popular vote by approximately 1 point, holding a 241-194 majority.
• 2018: Democrats gained control by winning the popular vote about 8.6 points, holding a 235-199 majority.
• 2020: Democrats secured a popular vote win of about 3.1 points, holding a 222-213 majority.
• 2022: Republicans won the vote by 2.7 points, achieving a 222-213 majority.
• 2024: Republicans won by 2.6 points, maintaining a 220-215 majority.

What to Expect

Polls will continue to be crucial heading into November 3. Political developments concerning the economy and living costs are likely to influence the outcome.

President Trump’s approval rating may play a critical role in this year’s elections.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors utilized Martyn, our AI assistant, in producing this story. For more information about Martyn, visit our website. Contact Newsweek editors Gabe Whisnant and Gray R. Thomas for inquiries related to this story.