Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race: Tiffany vs. Crowley in a Tight Contest

A recent Marquette Law poll indicates a close race for Wisconsin governor between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley garners 49% support from likely voters, while Tiffany follows closely with 46%. The poll reveals that 5% remain undecided. Among registered voters, Crowley holds 46% to Tiffany’s 45%, with 9% undecided. The margin of error stands at 4.8% for likely voters and 4.3% for registered voters.

Political Climate and Midterm Implications

Midterm elections commonly reflect the political environment for the party in power. Historically, the president’s party often loses seats during these elections. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

The current Wisconsin governor, Democrat Tony Evers, will retire, making the race a significant target for both parties.

Campaign Comments

Garren Randolph, Crowley’s campaign manager, commented on the significant financial backing Tiffany receives from Trump-aligned billionaires and external groups, totaling over $25 million. Randolph stated that Wisconsinites continue to support Crowley as they see him as an advocate for the people.

In contrast, Tiffany’s campaign emphasizes Crowley’s history of tax increases and accuses him of wanting to take more from taxpayers. Tiffany promotes his plan to return a $3 billion surplus and reduce property and income taxes by 10% for Wisconsin families.

Poll Trends and Candidate Dynamics

Compared to the previous month, Tiffany sees a 4-point rise among Republican supporters, while Crowley experiences a 2-point drop in Democratic support. Among independents, Crowley’s support fell 11 points, but Tiffany’s support increased by 2 points, with undecided voters rising by 8%. Favorability ratings for Crowley stand at 31% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Tiffany’s ratings are 39% favorable and 45% unfavorable.

Trump’s approval rating in Wisconsin has decreased to 38%, with a 60% disapproval rate, marking a downturn since the last poll. Democrats aim to leverage Trump’s declining popularity in state and national polls with the midterms approaching.

The poll was conducted from September 16 to 23, 2026, with 843 registered voters and 692 likely voters sampled.

Tiffany’s Break with Trump

Recently, Tiffany distanced himself from Trump regarding several issues. He disagreed with Trump’s executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” and opposed subsidies for data centers, arguing that Wisconsin taxpayers should not support wealthy companies.

Tiffany also criticized Trump’s decision to waive tariffs on imported beef, maintaining his support for Wisconsin farmers.

Other Polling Data

A Platform Communications poll shows Crowley leading by 4 points, while an RMG Research poll presents Crowley with a 3-point advantage. Both polls cite margins of error and various samples, reflecting the ongoing competitiveness of the race.