Knicks Triumph in Game 1 of 2026 NBA Finals

The New York Knicks secured a victory in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals by overcoming a 14-point deficit in the second half to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 105-95. The Spurs are favored to even the series quickly. As reported by FanDuel, they have a -225 moneyline and are favored by -6.5 points on a 215.5 total as of Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Betting Perspectives

If I had to choose, I’d side with New York at +6, or potentially +5. Before the series began, I backed New York to win the title at +170 odds and by at least 1.5 games at +270 odds. As a result, I refrain from betting on San Antonio as a favorite in any match of this series.

Karl-Anthony Towns credits his late mother for the calm he felt during the thrilling Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

While tempted to bet on the Knicks, the trend of backing a heavy home favorite in Game 2 after losing the series opener is appealing. Traditionally, the home team tends to dominate in the second game.

Despite this, I’ve decided to focus on the total, opting for the UNDER 215.5 for the second game, considering a further drop to +212 before placing the bet.

Best Bet for Game 2: UNDER 215.5

There’s a good reason to consider the Over for Game 2. It’s possible to ‘zigzag’ the outcome from Game 1, where the total fell far short with the Knicks’ win at 105-95. The zigzag theory involves betting opposite to the prior game’s result.

This time, though, despite the rapid pace of Game 1, the Under prevailed due to both teams’ defense being at a championship level, rather than sheer luck or shooting variance. Scoring exceeded 50 points in only one of the four quarters on Monday.

San Antonio challenged Jalen Brunson with tough shots, while New York’s Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson effectively defended Victor Wembanyama. Teams with elite defensive wings guarded the likes of Brunson and ‘Wemby,’ influencing their shooting accuracy.

NYK wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, dubbed ‘Wingstop,’ excel at defending Spurs players Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. They disrupt Victor Wembanyama with timely defensive plays.

The matches are likely to transition into defensive battles (‘rock-fights’) instead of high-scoring affairs (‘shootouts’). The Spurs’ chances improve by slowing down the pace since their offense struggles in shootouts against the Knicks, who excel in half-court scenarios.

Both teams minimize ‘easy buckets’ through low turnover rates and high defensive rebounding rates, reducing points from turnovers and second-chance opportunities.

I’m poised to place my bet on the Under closer to tip-off since the total might rise due to public preference for the Over, especially given the finals’ exposure and the Knicks’ participation.

Prediction: Knicks 107, Spurs 104

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Player Prop Analysis

Regarding San Antonio Spurs player Stephon Castle, my prediction for his points in Game 2 of the Finals is under 16.5 points.

Follow my thoughts on X at Geoffery-Clark and explore more content on the OutKick Bets Podcast, where I’m known for betting insights and occasional rants. Geoff Clark is recognized as OutKick’s authority on sports betting.