Political Turmoil in Israel Over US-Iran Agreement

In Jerusalem, Israelis across the political spectrum expressed anger on Monday in response to a provisional agreement between the United States and Iran. Many labeled the deal a disaster for Israel, directing their frustration toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

As of Monday evening, Netanyahu had not released a statement. Nonetheless, government officials, political rivals, and commentators swiftly criticized the agreement. This reaction served as an informal referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership ahead of the upcoming fall elections.

Critics highlighted Netanyahu’s increasing isolation, both at home and in the region, including distancing from the United States. They argued that Netanyahu influenced President Donald Trump towards conflict with Iran while overpromising the achievable outcomes. Now, some suggested Trump is withdrawing Israel from the conflict prematurely.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak accused Netanyahu of misjudging Trump’s resolve for prolonged conflict. According to Barak, Netanyahu underestimated Iran in negotiations, resulting in Israel’s growing regional marginalization. Barak stated, “Israel is paying the price of Netanyahu’s arrogance and blindness, and for the manipulations attempted on Trump.” He further claimed, “Iran emerged stronger; Israel emerged weaker. This is Netanyahu’s strategic responsibility. He failed.”

Yair Lapid, who opposes Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, described the agreement as “one of the most shocking foreign and security policy failures for Israel.” Lapid wrote, “This can and must be fixed. Netanyahu can no longer fix it; we will.”

Implications of the US-Iran Agreement for Lebanon

With the US-Iran agreement, Israel found itself in a difficult position, partly due to its military actions in southern Lebanon after the Lebanese group Hezbollah fired missiles into northern Israel. Iran insisted that any US-Iran deal include halting Israeli hostilities in Lebanon.

As negotiations progressed and Trump sought to exit the conflict, he became frustrated with Israeli actions in Beirut. Trump warned these actions might jeopardize a potential agreement. Ultimately, he decided to end the conflict with Iran, even if it limited Israel’s options in Lebanon.

This situation left Netanyahu in a precarious position. His relationship with Trump might necessitate reducing Israeli military activity in Lebanon, which had broad domestic support. By Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz promised to maintain troops in Lebanon.

Daniel Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel, explained, “Hezbollah only needs one rocket to hit an Israeli town in northern Israel, and the pressure on Netanyahu… will intensify.” Shapiro noted that this dynamic gives Hezbollah and Iran substantial control.

Some hawkish members of Netanyahu’s coalition criticized the agreement, urging him to continue the Lebanon campaign, even at the risk of upsetting the US and potentially derailing the agreement. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, on social media, stated, “We should not settle for less than the dismantling of Hezbollah.”

Netanyahu’s Missed War Goals

In Lebanon, the agreement left the future of Israel’s campaign uncertain. However, in Iran, it limited Netanyahu before achieving his objectives. On February 28, Netanyahu and the US initiated the conflict aiming to dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Yet nearly four months later, despite enduring severe aerial assaults, Tehran maintained a stronger position.

Iran’s network of proxies remains intact, retaining the capability to target Israel with missiles. Moreover, Tehran controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz, impacting global trade and increasing essential goods’ costs worldwide. The agreement’s impact on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile program remains unclear.

Political commentator Anna Barsky in the Ma’ariv newspaper noted, “Israel believes the war delayed Iran’s nuclear program but did not alter its objectives.” She added Israeli officials worry that the US agreement might provide Iran with significant financial relief.

Yair Golan, leader of a center-left party and former Israeli general, criticized the agreement on social media, stating, “Trump signs a deal injecting billions into the ayatollahs’ regime, leaving the nuclear infrastructure intact, maintaining the ballistic threat, and providing a lifeline to Tehran’s murderous regime.”