Demographic Shifts in U.S. States: Births, Deaths, and Migration

Rising Death Rates Overtake Births in Many States

Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau reflects a notable demographic trend: more individuals are dying than being born in a growing number of states. The U.S. fertility rate has declined significantly, falling below the replacement threshold of approximately 2.1 children per woman. This decline poses questions about future workforce growth and the sustainability of Social Security.

Between July 2024 and July 2025, 17 states reported more deaths than births. This marks a significant increase from the 2010s, when typically only four states experienced a natural population decrease.

Contributing Factors

Fertility rates are dropping nationwide, with states like Utah, traditionally noted for large families, witnessing this decline. Experts attribute this to increased housing costs, cultural shifts delaying marriage and childbearing, and financial concerns.

While migration may counterbalance population declines, states with a consistent imbalance between deaths and births face considerable long-term challenges.

States with Natural Population Decline

The following states experienced a natural population decrease between July 2024 and July 2025:

Pennsylvania saw the largest decline, followed by West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan. Many affected states are in the Northeast and Appalachia. These areas generally have older populations and face economic challenges, including high child-rearing costs.

Divya Sangameshwar, an insurance researcher, highlighted financial obstacles to having more children, emphasizing rising costs, inflation, and job insecurity.

States with Continued Growth

Several states demonstrate continued natural population growth, notably Texas with 157,700 more births than deaths. California, New York, Georgia, and Utah also reported positive growth.

Economists and demographers, such as Emily Harris from the Gardner Institute, note that costs linked to housing and childcare influence fertility rate declines, alongside delayed family planning.

The Role of Migration

A state’s total population may still grow despite more deaths than births. Florida exemplifies this, maintaining significant population growth through high domestic and international migration. As birth rates drop, migration increasingly impacts whether a state’s population expands or contracts.

Marc Perry, a senior demographer at the U.S. Census Bureau, remarked that with less natural population growth, international migration becomes essential for some states to maintain or grow populations.

Future Implications

With persistently low fertility rates and an aging population, births and deaths will play a lesser role in population dynamics. States facing natural decreases will likely focus on attracting new residents to sustain economic growth.