Polls Show Republican Max Miller Trailing in Ohio Amid Allegations

In a recent poll, Representative Max Miller fell behind his Democratic opponent, Brian Poindexter, in the closely watched Ohio House district race. Despite facing allegations of abuse and calls for withdrawal, the Republican congressman chose to remain a candidate. The Tavern Research poll showed Poindexter with an 8-point lead, as the deadline for Miller to step aside passed.

Miller represents Ohio’s 7th District, a region near Cleveland that supported Donald Trump by 11 points previously. His ex-wife, Emily Moreno, accused him of serious abuse, including threatening her with a firearm and physical assault. Court documents and police reports detail these claims. The New York Times highlighted allegations of him throwing hot water, holding a gun to Moreno’s head, and causing injuries to their child.

Miller denied the abuse allegations. A spokesman told Newsweek that, “The facts speak for themselves: the court has continued to permit him joint custody of his child. If there were credible evidence supporting these accusations, that would not be the case. Congressman Miller will continue defending his reputation against these allegations.”

The allegations have disrupted Miller’s reelection campaign. Democrats consider this district a prime opportunity for a seat flip in the upcoming election. Despite the district’s Republican lean, several factors might favor Democrats, including national trends and Trump’s declining approval ratings.

Newsweek reached out to both Miller and Poindexter for comments. The Tavern Research poll indicated that 54 percent of respondents favored Poindexter, while 46 percent supported Miller. Miller’s unfavorable ratings stood at 50 percent, while Poindexter had a favorable rating of 41 percent.

A co/efficient poll showed an even wider lead for Poindexter, who garnered 47 percent support compared to Miller’s 33 percent. The allegations appeared to affect Miller’s support, with 48 percent of voters less likely to back him.

Two major election analysts, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, moved the race to a toss-up category. Erin Covey from Cook Political Report cited the serious nature of the allegations as impacting Miller’s chances in this historically Republican area.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) included Poindexter in its “Red to Blue” program for top House targets, highlighting him as a leader Ohio families need.

Poindexter gained traction in prediction markets, with an 80 percent chance of winning on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These markets reflect current sentiment but are not definitive predictors.

Miller faced pressure to exit the race, with Republicans like Senator Jon Husted openly advising withdrawal. Husted stressed the importance of focusing on what benefits Miller’s daughter, suggesting resignation as the right choice.

Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, Miller’s former father-in-law, also called for his withdrawal, questioning Miller’s suitability for office. On the other hand, Trump declined to intervene, describing the situation as “very sad.”

Miller’s continued candidacy keeps the district as one of the most closely watched races for the midterms. Republicans currently hold a slight majority in the House, and Democrats need a few seat gains for control.

As of the latest data, Democrats had a high probability of flipping the House, with significant stakes in races classified as toss-ups by analysts.