Last month, The Athletic published Mike Sando’s Quarterback Tiers, a comprehensive annual survey that evaluates NFL quarterbacks. This assessment is based on input from a panel of NFL coaches, executives, and insiders. For more than a decade, this survey has been a definitive source of quarterback evaluation. This year, a new element was introduced: reader participation. Over 45,000 readers cast more than half a million votes, offering their opinions on where quarterbacks belong, from Tier 1 (elite franchise quarterbacks) to Tier 5 (not starters).
Readers and experts generally agreed on the rankings of the 35 quarterbacks, though there were notable differences in some areas. The reader data revealed a pronounced home-team bias. While The Athletic doesn’t know the specific teams its readers support, it does have insight into the teams they follow in the app. This anonymized data was used to compare ratings between a team’s followers and other readers.
Across all 32 teams, followers rated their team’s quarterback higher than those not following the team. This bias was evident as followers tended to elevate quarterbacks like Drake Maye (Patriots) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) from Tier 2 to Tier 1.
On average, this home-team advantage equated to a half-tier increase, akin to the difference between how experts rated Lamar Jackson (1.6 on average) and Jared Goff (2.1).
The list shows quarterbacks such as Tyler Shough of the Saints receiving the largest ‘home-team bump.’ Conversely, Deshaun Watson of the Browns received almost no favorable bump, with both followers and other readers rating him in Tier 5. This tier is for quarterbacks considered unfit to be NFL starters. Watson received mixed evaluations from the expert panel, averaging a Tier 4 rating.
The top-rated quarterbacks by readers were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford, each receiving minimal home-team bump.
Readers and Experts: Comparative Rankings
The reader and expert rankings of the 35 quarterbacks closely aligned. Both groups generally maintained similar ranks, with most quarterbacks shifting only slightly. Despite this alignment, readers consistently gave lower ratings, averaging 0.3 tiers lower than the experts. Reader voting resulted in 10% of the assessments being Tier 5, compared to just 2% from experts.
This discrepancy highlights the difference in perspective between casual readers and seasoned NFL analysts like coaches and GMs. Readers, participating online, may not approach the challenge with the same rigor.
Disagreements and Bigger Gaps
Notable disparities include quarterbacks readers felt were overrated by experts. Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa were key examples:
- Deshaun Watson: Rated 4.8 by readers versus 3.8 by experts.
- Aaron Rodgers: Rated 3.5 by readers versus 2.7 by experts.
- Tua Tagovailoa: Rated 4.1 by readers versus 3.4 by experts.
These differences may stem from Watson’s controversial off-field issues and Rodgers’ advanced age, among other factors. Tagovailoa’s situation with the Falcons and a recent injury likely impacted his ranking. These differences highlight how reader perceptions can diverge significantly from expert opinions.
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