Candidates Gain Momentum in 2028 Democratic Primary Predictions

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff have shown significant progress compared to California Governor Gavin Newsom in Polymarket’s predictions for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. These prediction markets reflect a dynamic race, with potential candidates preparing for campaign announcements after the midterms. On the Democratic side, political figures are already testing their strategies and connecting with voters in key primary states.

Understanding Prediction Markets

Prediction markets provide a snapshot of public sentiment regarding the 2028 field. Participants can trade contracts related to political outcomes, and these transactions transform financial wagers into probability assessments. As traders respond to polling and developments, contract prices change. While these markets offer insights into current sentiments, they do not guarantee future outcomes. Newsweek sought responses from representatives of Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Ossoff via email.

Notable Developments in Prediction Markets

Recent data from Polymarket demonstrates Ocasio-Cortez, a prominent progressive, and Ossoff, a respected Georgia Senator, gaining traction for the nomination. Ocasio-Cortez’s chances surged to 15% from 9% last month, while Ossoff’s likelihood increased to 14%, doubling from less than 6%. Newsom experienced a decline, with his probability dropping to 18% from 25% in June, while Kamala Harris maintained an 8% chance.

Kalshi’s market echoed similar trends, with Ocasio-Cortez’s prospects rising from 10% to 16%. Ossoff’s standing improved from 9% to 14%. Newsom’s support remained between 21% and 22%.

Recent Polling Data

Despite prediction market trends, Kamala Harris leads according to recent polls. A survey by FocalData placed Harris at 33% support, substantially higher than Newsom’s 15%, Ocasio-Cortez’s 9%, and Pete Buttigieg’s 8%. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 7% support, followed by Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at 5%, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at 3%, and Ossoff along with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear receiving 2% support each. The poll included 764 registered voters from June 26 to 30.

Similarly, a McLaughlin poll highlighted Harris with a 26% lead. Newsom garnered 16%, Ocasio-Cortez 9%, and Buttigieg 8%. Support for Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and Shapiro stood at 5% each, while 3% favored Kelly. Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer obtained 2% each. This poll surveyed 1,000 voters between June 17 and 23.

In April, a Harvard/Harris poll showed Harris with support from 50% of Democrats, up from 41% in March. Newsom followed with 22%, Shapiro 9%, Ocasio-Cortez 8%, and Pritzker 6%. Conducted from April 23 to 26, this poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.87 points.

Candidates’ Statements on 2028 Plans

Several Democrats have discussed their potential 2028 candidacies. Harris hasn’t ruled out a run, sharing thoughts with Reverend Al Sharpton in April. She emphasized her experience, having served close to presidential responsibilities.

Newsom noted running as conceivable during an interview with The Wall Street Journal in June 2025, while Ocasio-Cortez conveyed ambitions focused on transformative policies in a discussion with David Axelrod.

Ossoff confirmed no intention to run, intending to focus on winning reelection in Georgia, as projected to lean Democratic by The Cook Political Report.

Other figures, including Whitmer, have made similar declarations regarding the 2028 race. Whitmer confirmed her absence from the candidacy lineup in a May statement.