Coaching Carousel: Hot Seat Watch for 2026

The college football coaching carousel began early in 2025 as UCLA dismissed DeShaun Foster and Virginia Tech parted ways with Brent Pry after poor starts. A total of 32 FBS teams had coaching vacancies during this hiring cycle, reflecting a growing trend of frequent head coaching changes. Over the past three years, there have been 93 such changes. With programs investing heavily in NIL deals to enhance their rosters, coaches face increasing pressure to deliver immediate results. This trend suggests the carousel could start again before the first month of football is over.

1. Lincoln Riley, USC

USC’s athletic director, Jennifer Cohen, voiced her expectations for the Trojans to reach the College Football Playoff this season. Lincoln Riley, under a 10-year, $110 million contract since 2022, was brought in to elevate USC’s profile following his three CFP appearances with Oklahoma. Riley’s tenure in Los Angeles has seen mixed results, boasting a 35-18 record. USC’s best performance was 2022 with an 11-3 finish and a Heisman win for quarterback Caleb Williams. USC has failed to reach a 10-win season since.

2. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Florida State seemed promising last year, securing a victory against Alabama and starting 3-0. However, the team lost four consecutive games and finished 5-7, a noted improvement from their 2-10 record in 2024. Norvell was reportedly on the verge of being dismissed last season, but his buyout proved a determining factor in his return for 2026. FSU’s prospects this season remain uncertain, placing Norvell among those most at risk of losing their positions. To date, his record stands at 38-34, with his standout year in 2023 ending at 13-1 yet missing out on the CFP due to a pivotal injury.

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Despite high hopes following his Cincinnati tenure, Luke Fickell’s impact at Wisconsin has been underwhelming. With a 17-21 record and only one winning season since taking the helm before the 2022 bowl game, the sentiment among fans grows weary. Coming off a 4-8 season in 2025, athletic director Chris McIntosh announced continued support for Fickell by investing in recruiting and retention for 2026. Improvement this season is crucial for Fickell to maintain support.

4. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Coaching South Carolina poses challenges in the SEC landscape. Shane Beamer’s 9-4 season in 2024 stands out amidst a 5-7 record in 2023 and a 4-8 record (1-7 in SEC play) in 2025. With a cumulative record of 33-30, Beamer holds the potential for a turnaround with LaNorris Sellers leading the charge this year. A failure to clinch a winning season may prompt the Gamecocks to consider alternatives.

5. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda reached impressive heights in 2021, leading Baylor to a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl victory. However, maintaining that success has been challenging, reflected in a 36-37 record over his six years as head coach. After a 5-7 season in 2025, Aranda’s future hinges on the upcoming fall performance amid a league revamped by the departure of Texas and Oklahoma. He has since added DJ Lagway from Florida as quarterback, a move that might influence his continuity with the program.

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