Contentious Primary Battle Between Ogles and Hatcher in Tennessee

Republican Representative Andy Ogles faces a fierce primary challenge in Tennessee from Charlie Hatcher, endorsed by Governor Bill Lee. The state’s redrawn congressional map aims to eliminate a Democratic-held seat around Memphis. It’s part of an effort after the U.S. Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act.

Ogles’ district now includes more areas in western Tennessee, losing segments around Nashville and Middle Tennessee. This race features endorsements from Lee for Hatcher and President Donald Trump for Ogles. Significant outside investment fuels the competition as Ogles faces criticism for comments on homosexuality and Muslims.

Tennessee’s primaries, unlike most states, are not held on Tuesdays. The primary date is Thursday, August 6. Newsweek attempted to reach both campaigns for comment.

Prediction Markets and Polls

Prediction markets on the morning of the primary suggest Ogles has an 80% chance of reelection on Kalshi, lowered from 85% a month prior. Polymarket shows Ogles at a 73% chance of victory. Prediction markets, utilized by traders for political outcomes, reflect aggregated sentiment but are not always accurate predictors.

A Tusk Strategies poll reveals a close race, with Ogles at 37% support compared to Hatcher’s 33%. The poll surveyed 400 likely Republican voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The district isn’t highly competitive. Trump previously won here by 23 points in 2024, with analysts deeming it safe for the GOP nominee. On the Democratic front, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder leads, backed by endorsements from former Governor Phil Bredesen and Representative Steve Cohen.

Dueling Endorsements from Lee and Trump

While normally aligned, Lee and Trump endorse opposing candidates in this race. Lee announced his support for Hatcher on Facebook, highlighting their friendship and Hatcher’s conservative values. Trump endorsed Ogles in October 2025, praising his alignment with conservative principles.

Trump held a “tele-rally” with Ogles in late July. The Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, funded largely by renewable energy developers, invested significantly in Hatcher’s campaign, contributing to Ogles’ narrative of fighting against what he terms a radical agenda.

Controversial Remarks by Ogles

Ogles has faced scrutiny for some remarks. In June, a deleted post on X from Ogles claimed “homosexuality has no place in America.” Ogles attributed the post to his communications team and reprimanded the responsible employee.

Republicans, including Senator Ted Cruz, criticized his views. Ogles also faced backlash in March for comments about Muslims, prompting challenges to his stance on the First Amendment by figures like Richard Grenell.