James Talarico Leads in Texas Senate Race Polls

Democrat James Talarico has taken a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by SoCal Strategies, reveals Talarico with 50% support, compared to Paxton’s 45%. This represents a shift from their June survey, which showed Paxton ahead at 49% to Talarico’s 47%.

Texas has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in federal elections. However, demographic and political changes have recently made these elections more competitive. Newsweek attempted to reach both the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment outside regular hours.

Talarico Gaining Support Among Key Demographics

The poll, conducted between September 12 and 13 with 649 likely voters, shows Talarico gaining ground in several demographic groups. His support among Hispanic voters increased from 10% in June to 38% in September. Among independent voters, his backing rose from 10% to 45%. Talarico also saw his support among self-identified Republicans increase to 12% and among voters aged 18 to 29 to 46%.

Attorney General Paxton still holds advantages with certain groups. He leads among white voters with 56% to Talarico’s 39%, among those aged 45 to 64 with 49% to 46%, and among voters over 65 with 51% to 44%.

Challenges on the Path to Election Day

The poll also notes a potential tightening race as the election draws near. Republican voters seem less decided than Democrats. According to the survey, 6% of those backing Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the Senate race, compared to 1% of those who supported Kamala Harris.

To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these undecided voters and sway some of the 12% of Republicans leaning towards Talarico. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, labeling him the “greatest attorney general in America”, while also criticizing Talarico in public forums.

Overview of Recent Polls on the Texas Senate Race

While Texas has supported Republican presidential nominees since 1980, Democrats see an opportunity to compete in 2026. Trump won Texas by 13.7 percentage points against Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, marking it as a Republican stronghold. The state has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994.

Polls have shown varied leads for both Paxton and Talarico throughout the campaign. The race follows Paxton’s victory over long-standing Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. A YouGov/Univision poll conducted with 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4 indicated Talarico leading by 5 points, 48% to 43%, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll from August 24-26, involving 1,167 likely voters, showed Talarico leading at 44% to Paxton’s 43.4%, with 12.6% undecided. Including leaners, the race was a tie at 50% each. Other polls, such as an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, indicated a near tie, with Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%.

A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered Texas voters found Talarico with 51% support compared to Paxton’s 48%, with a 4% margin of error. According to prediction markets, the race is tightly contested. As of Monday, Kalshi showed Talarico with 52% and Paxton with 48%, while Polymarket had Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 50%.

Forecasting sources such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss-up.