James Talarico’s Slim Poll Lead in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has narrowed by one point. New opinion polls show fewer undecided voters. Democrats aim to control the Senate in the upcoming midterms. Winning in Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, would enhance their chances.

Recent Polls

The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted from September 19 to 22, polled 1,007 likely voters. Talarico led with 49 percent, while Paxton had 44 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 3.6 percent. During the previous survey from August 21-24, Talarico led by six points.

Undecided voters dropped from seven percent in August to three percent. Libertarian Ted Brown gained two points. The dip in Talarico’s support is still within the margin of error.

Another survey by Texas Southern University, held between September 15 and 19, showed Talarico with a one-point lead, at 47 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent and three percent for Brown. The survey polled 1,800 voters with a margin of error of 2.31 percent. Previously, Talarico led by two points.

Undecided voters declined from six percent to four percent. The drop in Talarico’s lead remains within the margin of error. Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comment.

Other Polls

Talarico leads in eight different polls, though some are within the margin of error, making the race close. An Emerson College survey from September 12-14 noted a 1-point lead for Talarico, polling 1,000 people with a 3 percentage point margin of error.

AARP’s survey from August 30 to September 1 gave Talarico a 4-point lead, with a 3.3-point margin of error. A YouGov/Univision poll from August 27 to September 4 placed Talarico ahead by 5 points, with a 3.6-point margin of error.

Debate and Funding

On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News during the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. He accused Paxton of avoiding debates all year, saying, “Let’s go to Ken Paxton’s safe space. Let’s do Bret Baier on Fox News.”

The Federal Election Commission’s figures up to June 30 show Talarico’s campaign raised $31,853,507, well above Paxton’s $9,147,100. Notably, 45 percent of Talarico’s donations came from out-of-state, with California contributing the most. Paxton received 17.1 percent from out-of-state sources.

Contact Newsweek editor Edward Pearcey for more on this story.