Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn in Texas Republican Senate Runoff Polls

The Texas Republican U.S. Senate runoff election is drawing national attention as a new poll by Quantus Insights places Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn. This development occurs on the eve of a critical vote that could shape the political direction of the GOP in a key state.

Both candidates moved to a runoff after failing to secure a majority in March’s election. The winner will face Democratic candidate James Talarico in November. The endorsement of President Donald Trump adds another layer to the contest, as Trump recently voiced his support for Paxton.

“TEXAS, REMEMBER! Ken Paxton was a GREAT Attorney General,” Trump said on Truth Social, urging voters to back Paxton.

When contacted by Newsweek, Paxton’s campaign did not provide a comment, while Cornyn’s campaign declined to discuss the poll results.

Recent Survey Findings

The latest poll gives Paxton 52.7% support among likely voters, as opposed to Cornyn’s 43.4%, leaving 3.9% undecided. A notable 58.9% indicated that Trump’s endorsement did not affect their choice. Paxton shows stronger support among various demographics, including men, women, millennials, and rural voters. Cornyn leads among urban voters and holds more favor with Hispanic and Asian voters.

Both candidates have been active on X. Cornyn emphasized a call to continue delivering conservative outcomes, while Paxton encouraged his supporters to mobilize others to vote, aligning his message with Trump’s endorsement.

Governor and Other Endorsements

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has chosen not to endorse either candidate in this pivotal race. Similarly, other prominent Republicans such as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Senator Ted Cruz have refrained from taking sides, according to The Dallas Morning News and USA Today.

Polling Details

The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary voters from May 21 to May 23, with a 936 effective sample size and a 3.5% margin of error. The runoff election occurs on Tuesday.

Other Poll Comparisons

Polling from Texas Southern University/YouGov suggests a tight general election race between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton. The survey indicates Cornyn narrowly leading Talarico by 1%, while Paxton and Talarico are tied. The poll surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6, and the margin of error is 2.8%.

Another poll by Texas Public Opinion Research reveals Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton in potential head-to-head matchups. The margin of error for this poll is 3.3%, with data from April 17 to April 20 involving 1,018 likely voters. Meanwhile, a previous survey by co/efficient reports a close race, showing Paxton trailing Cornyn by 1% with a notable portion of undecided voters in several demographics.