Significant Funding Boosts Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate Campaign Amid Tight Race

A Republican political action committee has injected $131 million over 17 days into Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate campaign. This translates to about $7.7 million each day, as revealed by official filings reviewed by Newsweek.

This support arrives as Paxton trails behind Democratic candidate James Talarico in several polls, with the critical November 3 midterm elections on the horizon. Talarico, who has a background as a Presbyterian seminarian and middle school teacher, aims to be the first Democrat in decades to secure a Texas Senate seat. A win could significantly bolster Democrat efforts to regain control of the Senate.

Why The Race Is Critical

Texas plays a crucial role in maintaining the Republican majority in the Senate. Paxton’s vulnerability in this race has led outside groups to make major financial contributions. The substantial financial involvement reflects the urgency with which the party is approaching the contest that could jeopardize its hold on both the seat and a broader Senate dominance.

Current Betting Odds

On the trading platform Polymarket, traders have given Talarico a 63 percent chance of winning, with Paxton at 38 percent. Over $1.6 million has been traded related to the market.

At Kalshi, traders believe Talarico has a 62 percent likelihood of defeating Paxton, while Paxton stands at a 42 percent probability. It is important to understand that these figures reflect trader expectations rather than actual voter preferences. These probabilities can rapidly change in response to new polls, campaign updates, and trades, so they should not be considered definitive forecasts.

As this is a developing story, updates will follow as more information becomes available. Newsweek staff utilized Martyn, an AI assistant, in the preparation of this report.