South Carolina Senate Race: A Republican Stronghold Faces New Challenges

Darline Graham clinched the Republican Party nomination for South Carolina’s Senate race on Tuesday. She will compete against Democrat Annie Andrews in the November general election. This election aims to fill the seat of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.

Lindsey Graham, a long-term representative in the Senate since 2003, passed away on July 11 due to an aortic dissection. His death triggered the need for a special primary election, as he was up for reelection this year. President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, who won approximately 52% of the vote, defeating Representative Ralph Norman. The Associated Press confirmed this victory at 9:01 p.m. ET Tuesday.

Republican Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, to temporarily fill the Senate seat. Annie Andrews, who secured the Democratic nomination in June, sees potential despite South Carolina’s challenges for Democrats. The state supported Trump by 18 points in 2024, but the Democrats are hopeful due to the president’s declining approval ratings.

“We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling good about building our war chest and getting ready to compete,” Andrews told Newsweek.

Andrews highlighted that Republican candidates have been vying to demonstrate loyalty to Trump. She pointed out that the administration has not sufficiently addressed economic issues like gas prices, increasing the seat’s potential to flip.

Annie Andrews’ Prospects in South Carolina

Polling data remains limited following Lindsey Graham’s death. An internal poll from Andrews’ campaign indicated a tight race but lacks independent verification. Before Graham’s passing, an internal poll showed a close contest, with Graham leading 48% to 45%, surveyed by Impact Research among 700 likely voters.

Prediction Markets and Forecasts

Prediction markets favor Republicans, giving them up to an 88% chance of winning. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a significant advantage for Republicans. These markets reflect trader sentiment on political outcomes, impacted by polling, fundraising, and trends.

Political forecasters, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, see the race as solidly Republican.

Democratic Challenges in a Republican Stronghold

South Carolina has long been a Republican stronghold. The state last supported a Democratic presidential candidate with Jimmy Carter in 1976. Republican candidates have consistently secured double-digit wins in recent elections. The last Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, was elected in 1998.

The Palmetto State, with its high Black voter population and urban centers like Charleston and Columbia, presents opportunities for Democrats. Yet, rural areas and racial polarization favor the GOP. In past cycles, Democrats have attempted to gain ground but faced challenges.

In the 2020 election, Democrat Jaime Harrison could not unseat Graham despite significant media attention. Governor McMaster won by 8 points in 2018, a close margin by state standards. This year, Democrats aim to capitalize on Trump’s struggling approval ratings. Recent national polls reflect growing disapproval of Trump, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing a 65% disapproval rate nationwide.

Civiqs polling indicates that 42% of South Carolina residents currently approve of Trump, while 51% disapprove. Democrats hope to leverage this dynamic to challenge conservative territories, although predictions suggest the state will stay Republican after the midterms.