South Carolina’s Republican Senate Primary Heats Up as Graham and Norman Emerge as Frontrunners

Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman are leading in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary race, according to a new survey conducted less than three weeks before the polls open. The survey, carried out on July 21, reveals Graham with 20.8% support from likely Republican primary voters, with Norman following at 16.9%. This suggests an expected runoff on August 25, given no candidate is nearing a majority for the special primary on August 11.

The survey provides an early glimpse into the race after President Donald Trump endorsed Graham on July 17, which prompted her to run for a full Senate term. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns on Saturday.

A Compressed Race Following Lindsey Graham’s Passing

The special election follows the July 11 death of longtime GOP Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to finish the term, igniting a fast-paced campaign cycle for South Carolina’s first open Senate seat in decades. Initially seen as a temporary steward, Graham’s role changed dramatically after receiving Trump’s endorsement, encouraging her to continue her brother’s political legacy.

Despite leading in the poll, Graham’s position is not firm. The survey noted that 17.8% of voters had not heard of her, while 31.3% had not formed an opinion. Conducted by Resonance Media Services headed by South Carolina Republican strategist Rick Quinn, the poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. With Graham’s 3.9-point lead within this margin, experts caution a clear frontrunner is yet to emerge.

Norman Positions for a Runoff

While Norman trails in initial rankings, his strategic position is strong if the race proceeds to a runoff. The poll shows Norman with robust favorability numbers and performing well as a secondary choice. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Graham, Norman, a vocal Trump supporter, continues to push forward. He recently finished third in the state’s gubernatorial primary.

The rest of the field is divided. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette captured 9.6%, with Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch each at 7.2%. Former Governor Mark Sanford has 7.1%, Representative Nancy Mace at 2.8%, and attorney Duke Buckner at 0.9%. Sanford announced his Senate bid post-poll, and Mace exited the race on Monday.

Split Conservative Endorsements

The contest has aligned several prominent party figures. Graham has backing from Senator Tom Cotton, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune supports her without a formal endorsement. Norman, meanwhile, has high-profile backing from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, highlighting a split among key party leaders.

General Election Outlook

As Republicans navigate the crowded primary, Democrat Annie Andrews, who secured her nomination on June 9, readies for the November general election. Andrews argues that a lengthy, costly GOP primary may benefit Democrats. Political scientist Justin Vaughn of Coastal Carolina University told Newsweek that despite the Republican contest, South Carolina is a “strong Republican state” and the seat remains a safe GOP hold. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024, and South Carolina Democrats last won a U.S. Senate seat in 1998. With the August 11 primary nearing, this race stands as a closely watched legislative contest marked by voter volatility and a condensed timeline.