State Childcare Regulations and Fertility Gaps in the U.S.

Research shows that states with fewer childcare regulations experience a smaller gap between the number of children people wish to have and the number they actually have. This finding highlights how policy differences affect family planning decisions.

A study published by the Manhattan Institute in City Journal, authored by Anna Claire Flowers, Vincent Geloso, Clara Piano, and Lyman Stone, examines trends in desired and achieved fertility among American women. Currently, U.S. women often have fewer children than they ideally want. On average, the fertility gap—the difference between the desired number of children and actual fertility—is about 0.76, nearly one child.

This gap is not consistent across the country. Notably, in North Dakota, the gap is approximately one-third of a child. However, it exceeds one child in states like New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Alaska. Such disparities indicate the influence of local policies on family sizes.

The findings suggest policymakers should consider how childcare regulations might influence fertility rates. Loosening these regulations could potentially help align family size desires with reality, supporting both population growth and individual satisfaction.