Study Shows Abortion Messaging Shifts Support in NC Senate Race

A recent study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America revealed strategic messaging about North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper’s abortion record has influenced voter support. This shift appears favorable for Republican candidate Michael Whatley, especially with a focus on federal abortion legislation.

The organization claims it has reached over 770,000 homes in North Carolina, employing a new strategy aimed at boosting what is anticipated to be a fiercely contested Senate race. Republicans aim to maintain control of the Senate by securing the seat currently held by the retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Canvassers target voters susceptible to persuasion and those with historically low turnout. Their focus revolves around abortion issues and Cooper’s track record, including his support for federal abortion legislation that could potentially override state restrictions. Additionally, they highlight his veto of state-level abortion restrictions.

In 2023, Cooper vetoed a North Carolina law banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, citing potential harm to women and families. However, the Republican-controlled General Assembly later overturned this veto, enabling the law to take effect.

“The issue that resonates most in North Carolina for the Senate race involves Gov. Cooper’s veto of the 12-week limit, which is widely supported both in the state and nationally. This move has impacted voters significantly,” stated Marjorie Dannenfelser, President of SBA Pro-Life America.

The study assessed effective messages in shifting opinions and forecasted the potential voter impacts. It allowed the group to pinpoint likely voters who might change their stance when exposed to pro-life messages.

Evolving Strategies, commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, conducted a randomized-controlled trial. The research involved an online panel of 2,607 registered voters in North Carolina, using a method aligning respondents with their voter files and consumer data.

The study gauged respondents’ support for candidates and policies after reading the messages. It also used predictive modeling to estimate which voters were most persuadable.

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America reported reaching over 770,000 homes in North Carolina with their campaign.

“Our approach involves identifying the best voters, regardless of their party affiliation. We start by assessing the potential movement of their vote. Utilizing consumer data, we profile our most promising voters and communicate through multiple channels,” Dannenfelser explained.

Participants received one of four different messages — “Fed,” “Record,” “Soft Positive,” or “Hard Positive” — or a placebo (control condition) message.

The “Fed” messages addressed Cooper’s support for federal legislation that might compromise state autonomy over abortion laws. The “Record” messages criticized his abortion record as governor, representing him as an extremist. “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages emphasized Whatley’s pro-life positions.

All messages proved at least somewhat effective, raising the Republican vote margin by net +1.7 to nearly +5 points. The “Fed” and “Record” messages yielded the highest gains at +4.9 and +3.2 points, respectively.

Identified persuasion targets saw potential impacts exceeding +12 points in the Republican vote margin, according to the study.

“These messages strongly connect with voters, especially those who feel abandoned by the Democratic Party. The abortion issue remains vital in North Carolina, making a sizeable impact,” said Dannenfelser.