Texas Senate Race Sees Shifts Among Younger Voters

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s efforts to sway young voters in his Senate race have encountered challenges, with recent polls indicating significant movement in favor of Democratic state Representative James Talarico. A survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reveals Talarico leading Paxton 76% to 18% among likely voters under 35. This marks a substantial shift from the center’s late July poll, where Talarico led 59% to 29% within the same demographic.

Talarico’s strong performance with young voters is critical as the race to succeed Senator John Cornyn remains highly competitive. The overall polling results from the Barbara Jordan Center show Talarico at 47%, Paxton at 46%, with Libertarian Ted Brown garnering 3%, and 4% of respondents undecided. The survey, conducted from September 15 to 19, involved 1,800 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±2.31 percentage points.

A Talarico victory would represent a historic shift, marking the first Democratic statewide election win in Texas in over three decades. Newsweek sought comments from Paxton’s and Talarico’s campaigns via email regarding these findings.

Why Paxton’s Strategy is Faltering

Despite launching initiatives targeting students in August, including forming 11 ‘Students for Paxton’ chapters across Texas campuses, Paxton’s numbers among young voters have dwindle. Paxton expressed pride in student involvement, yet the September poll data shows a decrease in support. This demographic now heavily leans towards Talarico.

Talarico has engaged with younger audiences through popular online media and podcasts, a mass appeal Democrats have struggled to maintain. Political strategist Mike Madrid attributes Talarico’s rising national profile partly to these platforms, suggesting the candidate’s resonance with hosts and their listeners.

The trend is broader than the Senate race. In gubernatorial contests, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott 71% to 21% among voters under 35, with similar gains for Democratic figures against other incumbents.

Voter sample composition has also shifted, with younger voters representing 14% in September, compared to 18% in July, indicating a larger margin of error for subgroup results.

Insights into Talarico’s Gains

Ken Paxton has cultivated online conservative voices for years, engaging platforms to support his stance amid controversies, like his 2023 impeachment proceedings. His difficulties contrast with Talarico’s strategic message evolutions and media presence, tilting toward a moderate tone in some policy areas.

Republicans criticize Talarico’s adaptability, considering it a sign of unreliable stances, whereas Talarico defends his consistent position. Madrid notes Talarico has shifted to centrist appeals post-primary, demonstrating a strategic approach suited to Texas’ political landscape.

Within Republican moderates, Talarico draws some support, with 27% planning to vote for him, reflecting a broader base appeal.

Overall Poll Analysis

The Barbara Jordan Center survey aligns with September polls showing Talarico ahead, although often within margin errors. Trafalgar Group reported Talarico leading 46% to 45%, while other polls fluctuate between narrow margins. AARP’s poll this month places Talarico ahead 48% to 44%.

Republican strategist Alex Patton cautions against reading these trends as a state-wide Democratic shift, emphasizing Talarico’s candidate appeal rather than broader Democratic resonance.

Future Outlook

Paxton shows strength among older voters, leading Talarico 57% to 37% for likely voters 55 and older, who comprise 55% of the sample. He also leads among white voters, while Talarico performs well among Latino and Black voters.

Cook Political Report categorizes Texas as one of seven toss-up Senate races, alongside others like in Michigan and New Hampshire. Current advertising investments highlight substantial spending by Republican groups compared to Democrats. Talarico’s campaign and financial standing, however, position him sharply, as he held significantly higher cash reserves by June’s end.

Madrid remains cautious about Democratic potentials in Texas, noting favorable conditions but recognizing the state’s conservative climate as the November election approaches.