Texas Senate Race: Talarico Outperforms Paxton in Fundraising

In Texas, traditionally Republican neighborhoods are shifting their financial support towards the Democratic Senate candidate, James Talarico, over the GOP nominee, Ken Paxton. An analysis by The Houston Chronicle shows Talarico’s fundraising success in ZIP codes previously backing President Trump. This transformation positions Texas as a crucial battleground in the fight for Senate control, with Democrats aiming for a breakthrough, hoping to win a Senate seat here for the first time since 1988.

Fundraising Figures

In University Park, where Trump won by over five points in 2024, Talarico raised $214,296, which is 18% more than Paxton’s $181,656 through June 30. This trend isn’t isolated. In ZIP codes across four metropolitan areas where Trump secured victories, Talarico amassed approximately $1.3 million from donors, compared to Paxton’s $422,000.

The most significant discrepancies are seen in The Woodlands, north of Houston. Talarico raised $238,622 in four ZIP codes there, while Paxton collected $39,281. In the central ZIP code, 77381, the split was $98,103 versus $19,247. In 77386, covering Spring and Imperial Oaks, the difference was $68,076 to $4,476.

Similar trends appear in West Houston and its suburbs. Talarico gathered $255,116 in ZIP code 77024 versus Paxton’s $60,643. Further west, in 77079, he raised $98,189 to Paxton’s $10,405. The Katy and Richmond areas followed suit with Talarico raising $152,557 compared to Paxton’s $50,228.

In North Dallas, ZIP code 75230 witnessed Talarico’s fundraising of $270,286 compared to Paxton’s $77,116. Highland Park remains a stronghold for Paxton, contributing $211,701.

Gains in Republican Territories

The Chronicle analysis highlights financial shifts in Republican territories, favoring Talarico over Paxton. The Woodlands ZIP codes are part of House District 15, where Trump secured a victory with 62.8% of the vote. Memorial ZIP codes fall within House District 133, which Trump won 52.4% to 45.4%. In District 26, covering Katy and Richmond, Trump held 56.3%.

Highland Park and University Park fall within House District 108, alongside North Dallas, where Trump won 51.7% against Kamala Harris. Despite Paxton’s support in GOP strongholds, Talarico’s major fundraising stems from regions opposing Trump.

In Texas’s ZIP code 78746, covering West Lake Hills near Austin, Talarico raised $584,863 versus Paxton’s $145,365. Houston’s ZIP code 77019, contains River Oaks with Talarico receiving $429,975, significantly more than Paxton.

Stagnation and Accusations

Paxton’s fundraising, following his Republican nomination victory over John Cornyn, experienced a slower pace. Between the second quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, contributions fluctuated before a noticeable improvement in the subsequent quarter, reporting $9 million, his campaign’s peak.

Conversely, Talarico’s campaign gained momentum upon entry on September 8, 2025. Reports indicate a $68.6 million raise with $47 million spent, leaving $21.5 million in reserves. Comparatively, Paxton’s figures stand at $9.2 million raised and $1.76 million on hand.

Paxton reportedly blamed Trump for impacting his campaign performance. In a private fundraiser, it was suggested that Trump’s Dallas convention stalled progress. Despite denying these claims, internal polls indicate Paxton narrowly leads.

Polling Status

Most public polls reveal Talarico maintaining a lead, albeit narrowly. September surveys largely favor Talarico, with some showing a tie or slight lead for Paxton. A Pulse Decision Science poll, backed by Paxton’s campaign, indicated a competitive race, with Paxton at 48% and Talarico at 45%, with 4% undecided.

Stratus Intelligence’s poll showed an even split, while nonpartisan sentiments favor Talarico. Marist University’s data placed Talarico ahead by 6 points, his largest margin. Emerson College and other surveys echo this trend, suggesting a tight race as election day nears.