Ukraine’s Defense Struggles Amid Patriot Missile Shortages

On August 4, 2024, Ukrainian Air Force F-16 fighter jets soared over a Patriot air and missile defense system in a secret location in Ukraine. Russia intensified its air attacks before dawn on Saturday, launching 27 ballistic missiles at Kyiv. These attacks tragically resulted in nine fatalities and over 30 injuries. While Russia conducts airstrikes almost every night, this particular assault was notable due to Ukraine’s limited defense capabilities.

The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, revealed that only one Russian missile was intercepted. “Only one ballistic missile was intercepted, simply because there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems,” said Zelenskyy on social media. The U.S.-made Patriot air defense system is currently Ukraine’s sole effective defense against such threats.

The urgent need is for new Patriot interceptors. The U.S. faces concerns about their own decreased stockpiles amid conflicts abroad, including the war in Iran. Gulf allies are equally anxious about replenishing their inventories during potential regional conflicts.

U.S. Patriot Stockpiles

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed reports of a Patriot missile shortage as sensationalized. However, earlier this year, he admitted that replenishing stockpiles might require significant time. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. stockpiles decreased from over 2,300 to approximately 800 since the Iran war began. Anonymously, a U.S. official confirmed the CSIS figures’ accuracy.

Patriot systems debuted in the 1980s and were first prominently used during the 1991 Gulf War against Iraqi Scud missiles. Today, nearly 20 nations rely on these systems for missile defense. Russia and Iran’s missile deployments are diminishing the global production and availability of Patriot interceptors.

Raytheon and Lockheed Martin manufacture the systems and missiles. Their production rates previously sufficed until escalating conflicts increased demand. Production is expected to ramp up, though timelines for replenishing global inventory remain unclear.

Ukraine’s Appeals

Ukraine began receiving Patriot systems three years ago and has effectively reduced damage from Russian attacks. The country consistently seeks more Patriot systems and missiles. “The Patriot system has really been the main ballistic missile defense system. It’s a really big stockpile problem. I don’t know if there’s any immediate solution,” stated Rob Lee, a military analyst living in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy urges countries to send available Patriots, emphasizing the need to actively counter Russian aggression rather than stockpiling for potential use. So far, international commitments remain absent.

Ukraine’s Potential Manufacturing

During a NATO summit, former President Trump told Zelenskyy that Ukraine could potentially manufacture Patriots. After White House discussions, Zelenskyy continued talks with Lockheed Martin on moving forward. Trump later reversed his stance, highlighting the risks of sharing advanced technology prematurely.

Rep. Don Bacon advocates for Ukraine’s ability to build Patriots, expressing concerns over current shortages. “Enabling the Ukrainians to build the Patriot would have helped relieve the shortage of interceptors we face today,” he stated in an interview earlier this week. However, manufacturing delays are likely due to component supply chain issues. The U.S. has granted only Germany and Japan licenses to produce Patriots.

Another missile interceptor, the THAAD system, is exclusively available to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. U.S. stocks for THAAD declined from around 450 to about 250 due to the Iran conflict.

Greg Myre reported from Kyiv, while Tom Bowman reported from Washington.