Ukraine’s Military Strategy and U.S. Relations in Focus

A Bold Move by Ukrainian Forces

Two years ago, Ukrainian soldiers embarked on a significant mission. They aimed to capture Russian territory and give President Vladimir Putin a reaction he did not expect. The troops entered tanks and armored vehicles, advancing from Sumy into Russia’s Kursk region. They secured over 500 square miles of enemy territory. This marked a momentous breach of Russia’s borders, an event not seen since World War II. It offered Kyiv leverage as talks of a ceasefire seemed to be on the horizon.

However, by February 2025, Russia had pushed back, reclaiming almost all Ukrainian-held areas except for a small strip. President Volodymyr Zelensky then met with President Donald Trump, an event remembered for its diplomatic significance. As U.S. negotiators prepare for visits to both Russia and Ukraine, Zelensky now presents a new peace plan to Washington. Although a near-term ceasefire with Russia seems unlikely, Zelensky has a stronger position to press the Trump administration to increase pressure on Moscow.

Rethinking Military Strategy

“You Don’t Need Land To Have a Good Hand”

The Kursk operation intended to shift the balance for Ukraine. Despite its initial success, Ukraine had to retreat, leading to criticisms of the operation’s rationale. Learning from past actions, Ukraine has avoided large-scale invasions into Russia, with minor exceptions like the Belgorod operation. Instead, Ukraine has developed new strategies not reliant on territory occupation.

Advancements in drone technology and homemade missiles allow Ukraine to launch deep strikes into Russia. Data from ACLED reveals that Ukraine increased its long-range attacks significantly from January to July. Recent attacks included a warehouse hit over 1,200 miles from Ukraine. Major operations in Novorossiysk targeted Russian grain terminals and warships. Despite Moscow’s claims of shooting down 500 drones, enough inflicted substantial damage. Ukraine’s strategy aims to overwhelm Russian air defenses rather than outright defeat them.

Diplomatic Moves and Defense Partnerships

Ukraine’s actions in Novorossiysk highlighted a careful diplomatic strategy. The city hosts a crucial oil export terminal from Kazakhstan, vital to global supply. Kyiv opted not to attack the terminal, respecting U.S. interests related to American companies, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Despite sparing these facilities, Ukraine still targeted Russian assets. The message is clear: Kyiv can strike strategic hubs important to Washington while choosing its targets selectively.

Ukraine still depends on U.S. military aid, especially for intercepting Russian missiles. Yet, its relationship with the U.S. has evolved. Recent agreements allow Ukrainian drones to undergo testing by U.S. military experts. Additionally, Ukraine exports its technology to European allies, bolstering its economy and military capabilities.

Challenges Ahead for Zelensky

Despite these gains, Ukraine’s war victory remains uncertain. Russia maintains a significant military presence and continues offensive efforts in Eastern Ukraine. The progress is slow, partly due to limited mobilization since a 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists. This mobilization was unpopular, causing many Russians to flee.

President Putin has abstained from announcing new mobilizations partly due to upcoming elections. Post-election, however, Russia may call up hundreds of thousands more troops, a concern for Ukrainian intelligence and observers. Technological advancements aid Ukraine in targeting enemy infrastructure, but they cannot replace manpower or intercept ballistic missiles.

When Zelensky next meets with Trump, his needs for military support remain constant. Yet, unlike before, he enters discussions with concrete successes and strategic leverage.