Wisconsin’s Gubernatorial Primary: A Tight Race

State Representative Francesca Hong, known for her democratic socialist views, is competing fiercely against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary. Crowley, supported by the party establishment, currently leads Hong by approximately 2,000 votes—or 0.4 percent—with 98 percent of the votes counted as of 2 a.m. local time.

Candidates await final ballots before determining their next steps. If the margin remains under 1 percentage point, a recount could be initiated by the losing party. Elections officials announced near midnight that around 28,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee faced delays due to human error. The results are expected to be released early Wednesday.

“We have built something that will change politics forever,” Hong told her supporters late Tuesday night. “The work we have done will be remembered forever. I know we don’t have the final results right now, but what I do know is we are ready to keep fighting.”

Crowley’s campaign expressed a positive outlook early Wednesday amid pending votes, stating, “We feel optimistic, but it’s not over until the votes are counted.” The winner will face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November’s open election, which serves as a crucial test for progressive influence in this battleground state.

Democrats aim to leverage President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings, as he had won Wisconsin in 2016 and 2024. Their goal is to maintain gubernatorial control and potentially flip both legislative chambers, achieving full dominion over Wisconsin’s state government for the first time since 2010.

Crowded Field Narrows to Two

The decision by Democratic Governor Tony Evers not to seek another term led to a bustling race to replace him. Tiffany, backed by Trump, encountered nominal competition in securing the Republican primary. The Democratic contest, initially larger, is now a showdown between Hong and Crowley.

Crowley rejuvenated his campaign for governor less than two weeks after withdrawing in July, following Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez’s exit amid financial misconduct allegations. Evers, initially neutral, endorsed Crowley.

Party leaders fear Hong’s platform could ease Tiffany’s path to victory in November, as moderate and independent voters, crucial in Wisconsin’s closely fought elections, may find her policies challenging.

While Hong galvanizes left-wing supporters, national progressives, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders, haven’t endorsed her despite backing other progressive candidates like Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed.

“My focus has been in winning back the Congress, winning back the House, and positioning ourselves to have the best chance possible to win the Senate,” Ocasio-Cortez stated in an ABC interview when questioned about her lack of support for Hong.

Polling Surprises in Favor of Crowley

Polls have misjudged Crowley’s position in the race, initially positioning Hong as a predominant leader. The final survey from State Navigate, conducted between August 3 and 6 with 1,473 likely Democratic voters, depicted Hong with a 22-point advantage over Crowley.

The same poll assigned Hong 44 percent support, against Crowley’s 22 percent; state Senator Kelda Roys had 11 percent, and nonprofit leader Joel Brennan garnered 5 percent. The poll’s margin of error stood at 2.3 percentage points.

Hong led in five sequential Marquette University Law School polls. Their latest survey, from July 22 to 27, stated Hong at 38 percent support, Mandela Barnes at 16 percent, Crowley at 7 percent, while 34 percent remained undecided.

This story continues to evolve, with forthcoming updates anticipated.