Steve Hilton Heads to California Gubernatorial Race Against Xavier Becerra

Republican candidate Steve Hilton is preparing for a general-election campaign against former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. Hilton aims to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years. The current governor, Gavin Newsom, cannot seek reelection due to term limits, presenting an opportunity for Republicans.

The GOP has largely supported Hilton, focusing on core concerns among voters such as illegal immigration and crime. Decision Desk confirmed that Hilton secured the second spot to advance to the general election. Former President Donald Trump expressed approval of Hilton’s progression on Truth Social.

According to the Associated Press, with 83 percent of the votes counted, Hilton is in second place with 25.1 percent, while Democrat Tom Steyer stands at 22.4 percent. The media has yet to declare a second-place winner.

Polls and Odds Against Hilton

Despite his position, polls suggest Hilton faces challenges. A SurveyUSA poll before the election recorded Hilton and Steyer both with 20 percent, while Becerra trailed at 17 percent. An Emerson College poll had Hilton in third place with 21 percent, behind Becerra and Steyer.

Should Democrats unify behind a single candidate following the primary, Hilton may encounter heightened competition. Currently, registered Democrats surpass Republicans by a two-to-one ratio in California, indicating he must appeal to independent voters and disenchanted Democrats to gain ground.

Hilton’s Unique Position

Hilton, known for his previous role as a Fox News host, advocates policies such as lowering taxes and addressing crime. He has secured Trump’s endorsement, who has committed to support him if Hilton wins. Targeting Californians’ key issues, Hilton has also promised to investigate Newsom for alleged fraud if elected.

Despite unified Republican backing, statistical data showcases a daunting scenario for Hilton. Historical voting records demonstrate a significant disparity between registered Democrats and Republicans, a challenge Hilton cannot overlook.

Historical Context and Fundraising Insights

The last Republican to win the California governor’s seat was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was reelected in 2006. At that time, the voter registration gap was less pronounced compared to today, where Democrats substantially outnumber Republicans.

In financial terms, Hilton has raised over $7 million for his campaign. Almost half of these donations occurred post-April 19, showing increased interest and support. By comparison, Becerra raised slightly over $6 million, with Steyer leading significantly with over $160 million.

Hilton’s success hinges on his ability to expand his support base. Without drawing voters beyond traditional Republican ranks, his chances remain slim.

Becerra’s Position in the General Election

Xavier Becerra secured his place in November’s gubernatorial race, advancing from a competitive primary. As a former Attorney General, he focused on addressing affordability issues such as housing and energy prices. His victory could be historically significant, potentially becoming California’s first Latino governor in over a century.

While Becerra’s expertise is acknowledged by supporters, others question his management during the pandemic and his tenure under the Biden administration.