Record Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season Linked to El Niño Conditions

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2026 has been exceptionally quiet, as a strong El Niño suppresses storm activity. The National Hurricane Center reports no Atlantic hurricanes have formed this year, despite the season typically peaking from August to October. Officially running from June to November, the season has only seen five weak tropical storms so far.

On September 12, 2026, the record for the longest start to a hurricane season without a storm reaching 64 mph winds was set, according to meteorologist Nick Novella from the Weather Prediction Center. Some historical records before the 1950s showed similar inactivity, but these are unreliable due to incomplete ocean monitoring.

Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert from Colorado State University, noted that overall hurricane activity is at a record low since 1950. Current activity is only 7% of the normal levels expected at this time of the year. The 2026 annual hurricane report from Colorado State University predicted nine named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Despite this lull, experts caution against complacency. Even a single storm during an El Niño can cause significant damage. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor at the University at Albany, emphasized the inhospitable conditions for storm formation due to powerful winds, dry air, and downward pressure.

El Niño, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific, significantly impacts weather patterns worldwide. According to Klotzbach, this El Niño has produced record-strong wind shear that dismantles storm systems before they mature.

Corbosiero explained that in areas between Africa and the Caribbean, where storms usually develop, wind shear reaches 45 mph beyond tolerable levels for a tropical cyclone. This formidable barrier is compounded by dry air, African dust, and limited storm system formation.

Although ocean temperatures are warm, conducive to storm formation, they haven’t risen as swiftly as atmospheric temperatures. Kerry Emanuel from MIT explained that the temperature difference between the air and water is crucial, with hurricanes fueled by this heat exchange. The current discrepancy results from Atlantic waters lagging behind the atmosphere’s rapid El Niño-induced warming.

Looking ahead, Emanuel suggests that as El Niño fades, the warm water could lead to increased storm activity in the following season.

While the Atlantic remains calm, the Pacific Ocean experiences heightened tropical cyclone activity, with notable storms impacting Hawaii. This year has witnessed 16 named storms in the eastern Pacific and 20 in the central region, surpassing normal activity levels.

Corbosiero noted that El Niño tends to push storms westward, contributing to the increased Pacific activity. Forecasters previously predicted a slow Atlantic season, but the inactivity has been more extreme than anticipated, according to hurricane expert Brian McNoldy.