Ukraine Regains Initiative as Russian Forces Face Strategic Setbacks

Ukraine has disrupted Russian ambitions to seize the Donetsk region amid the ongoing conflict, according to analysis. Ukrainian forces have regained strategic and operational momentum for the first time in two years. Reports indicate that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is receiving exaggerated accounts from his generals about battlefield successes, reinforcing his belief that he is winning the war.

Ukraine’s counteroffensives have reduced Russian territorial gains to zero over the past six months. Successful operations in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman sectors are highlighted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose analysis is supported by even pro-Kremlin military bloggers. Ukraine has stopped Russian advances into the Dnipropetrovsk region, reclaimed ground around Kupiansk, and destroyed a Russian salient threatening Slovyansk and the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt, which is the backbone of Ukraine’s defense in the eastern Donbas region.

The ISW notes that Ukraine has effectively contested the initiative since late 2025, following the August 2024 Kursk Offensive. Giorgi Revishvili, a military analyst, emphasized Ukraine’s positive first half of 2026 compared to previous years. He noted Ukraine’s successful local counteroffensives and territory liberation.

Pro-Russian bloggers acknowledge Ukrainian successes. They noted that Ukrainian forces cut the Russian salient north of Lyman and pushed Russian troops to the Zherebets River. The ISW’s assessment corroborates these reports.

Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan commended Ukraine’s gains amidst ongoing Russian missile attacks. He highlighted smaller operations in southern Ukraine that led to the liberation of approximately 290 square miles, challenging the narrative of a frontline stalemate.

Despite the ISW noting Russian forces have made limited progress around Kostyantynivka and east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, Revishvili warned that upcoming months would be difficult for Ukraine. Moscow may have a window to intensify pressure on the Fortress Belt, with adverse weather potentially reducing drone effectiveness and natural concealment.

Russia is likely to focus efforts around Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, and Druzhkivka. Establishing a foothold in these areas would permit Russian forces greater access and concentration for future offensives.

Another challenge for Ukraine will be airspace protection. Russia’s use of cost-effective strike systems like the S8000 Banderol drones makes interception difficult. Increased strikes on civilian infrastructure, logistics hubs, and energy facilities are anticipated.

There is speculation about Putin announcing mobilization due to sustained troop losses. Ukraine’s intelligence warns Russian generals are urging mobilization of 800,000 troops, but capabilities for a mass mobilization are doubtful. Putin may opt for a gradual and covert strategy due to previous unpopularity.