Record Early Voting in Texas Strongholds Indicates Competitive Races

Two key Democratic strongholds in Texas, Harris and Dallas counties, reported record numbers for the first day of early voting, which is seen as a positive sign for Democrats in these crucial areas. The Democratic Senate candidate, James Talarico, shows potential to claim a seat, with recent polls indicating he holds a slight lead over his Republican competitor, Ken Paxton. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces a close contest against Democratic rival Gina Hinojosa, with polls revealing that Hinojosa has narrowed Abbott’s lead to about 2 points.

Texas has not seen a Democrat win a statewide race for 32 years. The possibility of Democratic success in Texas has raised concerns among Republicans about which party will control the Senate as President Donald Trump approaches his final two years in office. Although Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in the 2024 election, his popularity has declined in the state and nationally amidst economic concerns, high gas prices, and the war with Iran.

Early Voting Statistics

Harris County, which encompasses Houston, experienced record-breaking turnout on the first day of early voting in midterm elections. By 3:30 p.m. that day, more than 70,000 voters had voted, surpassing the previous record of 63,188 set in 2018, with a few hours still left. Despite this, Harris County has more registered voters compared to 2018, with an increase from 2,357,199 to 2,702,952, representing a rise of 14.7%.

In Dallas County, early voting on the first day reached 76,069 voters, surpassing the previous record of 60,573 set in 2020, marking a 25.6% increase. The county has also seen a 4.7% increase in registered voters, growing from 1,398,469 in 2020 to 1,463,708 currently. El Paso County reported its second-highest early voting turnout for a midterm election, with 22,412 votes, compared to the 2018 record of 24,449.

Republican Efforts to Mobilize Voters

Republicans have been actively encouraging rural and suburban voters to participate in voting. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and conservative commentator Mark Levin emphasized the importance of voter turnout during Patrick’s podcast. Patrick highlighted the role of rural America in influencing election outcomes, urging Republicans in predominantly Democratic districts to ensure their vote is counted.

Conservative analyst Levin warned that Texas elections could significantly impact national power dynamics, stressing potential demographic changes and Democratic campaign efforts that might challenge the GOP’s long-standing dominance. Republicans have invested over $158 million in external campaign spending, trying to counteract Democratic efforts. Trump has visited Texas multiple times to rally support for Paxton and plans further visits during early voting periods.

Endorsements and Polls

The Dallas Morning News recently endorsed Talarico for Senate, marking a shift from its historical support for Republican John Cornyn. Citing Paxton’s history of controversies, the editorial board emphasized Talarico’s political independence and integrity. Major newspapers like the Houston Chronicle and Austin American-Statesman have also endorsed Talarico.

Polling data indicates that Talarico leads most polls since Paxton secured the nomination. According to RealClearPolitics, Talarico leads Paxton by 2.2 points as of Tuesday. A CBS News/YouGov poll highlights Talarico’s slight advantage, while a University of Houston poll confirms his lead, including support for Libertarian candidate Ted Brown.

In the gubernatorial race, Abbott maintains a narrow lead over Hinojosa, according to recent polling averages. Yet, a GBAO poll for the Hinojosa campaign showed her ahead. Several other polls confirm the close race, with Abbott maintaining slight leads.