Los Angeles Mayoral Race: Fundraising and Poll Insights

1 month ago 0

Spencer Pratt, a candidate for the Los Angeles mayoral election, has significantly outpaced other candidates in fundraising. Recent filings show Pratt raised approximately $2.72 million between April 19 and May 16. In the same timeframe, incumbent mayor Karen Bass secured about $283,000, as per documents from the Los Angeles Ethics Commission. Also notable is Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, who raised $400,000, including a $60,000 loan from herself.

Overall, Pratt’s campaign finance reports indicate a total of $3.26 million in contributions through May 16, slightly more than Bass’s total of $3.13 million. Raman reported a total of over $931,000. Pratt, known for his reality television background, entered the race after losing his home to the Palisades Fire. His campaign has gained attention with viral videos and criticism of Bass’s leadership on issues like public safety and homelessness.

Despite heavy odds in a predominantly Democratic city, Pratt’s fundraising success suggests he may gather enough support to advance to November’s runoff election, although the city has not elected a Republican mayor since 1997. The election is nonpartisan, yet Pratt, a registered Republican, has received support from President Donald Trump.

What The Polls Say

Polls indicate Bass leads the race but not by enough to avoid a runoff. A poll by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics shows Bass with 30% support, up from 20% in March, while Pratt holds 22%, rising from 10%. Raman has 19%. Undecided voters dropped dramatically from 51% in March to 16% in May. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between May 9 and 10, with a margin of error of ±3%.

Similarly, Tavern Research shows Bass leading with 22% support, Pratt at 18%, and Raman at 16%. Undecided respondents decreased from 46% to 29% after follow-ups. The poll involved 531 likely voters online from May 1 to 4, with a margin of error of ±6.1%.

What the Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets also show Bass as the favorite. These markets are platforms where outcome probabilities are expressed as percentage chances. Bass’s odds increased recently; as of early Monday, she was at 71%, up from 56% the prior week. Pratt decreased slightly to 22% from 24%, and Raman fell to 10% from 16%.

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, echoed these findings, pricing Bass at 67%, Pratt at 27%, and Raman at about 7% as of Monday morning.