Senator John Cornyn’s significant loss to Ken Paxton underscores President Trump’s continued influence over the Republican base. Cornyn, a long-time Texas senator, lost by 28 percentage points in the primary runoff. This defeat illustrates the shift among dedicated Republican voters towards Trump-endorsed candidates, even at the cost of dismissing established party figures.
Trump’s base remains active in Republican primaries, a pattern evident this year with multiple defeats of incumbents criticized by Trump. Despite his declining overall popularity, these primary victories contribute to a challenging midterm landscape for Democrats.
Cornyn was once a leading figure in the Senate, serving four terms. His loss to MAGA supporter Paxton, who spent less in the most expensive Senate primary to date, marks a historical low. According to Decision Desk HQ, it’s the worst outcome for a sitting senator in a two-person primary or runoff since 1974.
Only days before, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, another Trump-opposed incumbent, failed to reach his runoff. He garnered less than 25% in a four-way race. These outcomes reveal the party’s core voters are aligned more closely with Trump than with non-Trump G.O.P. leaders.
Additionally, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky lost a May 19 House primary after Trump’s intervention. Trump commented on the difficulty of defeating incumbents, a challenge he has repeatedly overcome.
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