Baltimore’s Approach to Reducing Violence

Five years ago, Baltimore faced the grim reality of losing over 300 residents annually to homicides. Today, the city sees significant improvements, with both homicides and nonfatal shootings decreasing by about 60%. Since September 2022, Baltimore’s homicide rate has steadily dropped. By 2025, the city recorded only 133 homicides, the lowest in nearly half a century.

A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper reveals that Baltimore’s success outpaced other cities by 25%, achieved without increasing arrests. This didn’t happen by coincidence or overnight, nor was it solely due to enforcement. Historically, Baltimore’s heavy reliance on arrests didn’t curb violence and eroded trust within the community. At its peak, zero-tolerance policing led to 100,000 arrests annually in a city of about 600,000 people.

Arrests and prosecutions have their roles in public safety, yet aggressive enforcement harmed non-white communities and didn’t impact crime rates effectively. In 2022, Baltimore prioritized violence reduction, focusing on a small number of people and conflicts responsible for most violence. Data indicated that less than 2% of residents were linked to 75% of serious violent acts.

Baltimore adopted the Group Violence Reduction Strategy, starting with community-led outreach. The message was clear: help is available, but violence would meet with consequences. Those accepting help received life coaching, job training, education, housing, and relocation services. Those persisting in violence faced accountability.

The city developed a robust service infrastructure to engage individuals who previously encountered government mainly through enforcement. This combination of targeted action, support, and accountability brought results. In the Western District, homicides and nonfatal shootings dropped by about one-third within 18 months without increasing low-level arrests or displacing violence.

Past attempts to implement similar strategies had failed due to poor execution. This time, Baltimore employed a five-year implementation plan, starting in its most violent district and expanding gradually, which required patience in the face of criticism. Weekly coordination among police, prosecutors, outreach workers, service providers, and community partners became crucial. The involvement of residents and grassroots leaders ensured strategies were grounded in community needs.

Research supports the effectiveness of focused, partnership-based strategies when they are well-managed and upheld beyond typical political cycles. Baltimore’s goal has been to minimize community harm while reducing violence, achieving this by combining enforcement with substantial support. Targeting the few responsible for most violence, not entire neighborhoods, proved effective, with trusted community leaders playing a central role.

The positive impact is evident: neighborhoods feel safer, youth receive necessary support, and new businesses thrive in revitalized areas. Although challenges remain, Baltimore’s progress demonstrates that focusing on evidence and partnerships can solve difficult problems. The city sets an example, showing accountability and support can coexist within a functioning system.

Brandon M. Scott serves as Baltimore’s 52nd mayor, leading efforts to reduce violence and invest in education, recreation, and housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., is the Jerry Lee Professor of Criminology at the University of Pennsylvania and directs the Crime and Justice Policy Lab.