Decline in Trump’s Approval Among College-Educated Voters

Recent data indicates a marked decline in President Donald Trump’s approval rating among college-educated Americans. This trend may present challenges for Republicans aiming to maintain control of Congress.

Survey Data and Trends

According to Economist/YouGov polls:

• Approval among college graduates dropped from 34% in late August to 30% by early September.
• Disapproval rose from 63% to 69% during the same timeframe, increasing Trump’s net deficit from 29 to 39 points.

This demographic shift is important politically. College graduates play a significant role in the Democratic coalition. In contrast, Trump’s 2020 victory leaned more on voters without four-year degrees. A Pew Research Center analysis showed about two-thirds of Trump’s supporters did not have a college degree, while college degree holders made up 48% of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters.

The surveys point to a growing dissatisfaction among college-educated voters. However, polls historically underestimate Trump’s popularity. The president outperformed expectations in three presidential campaigns.

White House Response and Poll Details

The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda, said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle to Newsweek.

Insights from the Polls

Fewer college graduates approve of Trump’s performance, with an intensifying opposition:

• In the August 21-24 poll, 34% approved, 63% disapproved, and 54% strongly disapproved.
• By August 28-31, approval dropped to 31%, disapproval rose to 68%, and 57% strongly disapproved.
• The September 4-8 poll showed 30% approval and 69% disapproval, with 61% strongly disapproving.

Among respondents without a degree, 41% approved and 57% disapproved, giving Trump an 11-point approval edge over those with degrees.

Issue-Specific Ratings

Trump’s performance is viewed negatively on key issues by college graduates:

• Economy: 28% approval, 72% disapproval
• Inflation: 25% approval, 73% disapproval
• Taxes and government spending: Net-negative ratings

Poll margins of error range from approximately 3.4 to 3.5 percentage points. Although specific margins for college graduates are not published, the trend shows a 10-point decline in net rating over three surveys.

Potential Impact on Midterms

Polling shows college graduates favor Democratic congressional candidates as midterms approach:

• September 4-8 poll: 57% of college graduates support Democrats, 28% favor Republicans.
• Among voters without degrees: Republicans lead 39% to 33%.
• 78% of college graduates intend to vote, compared to 67% without degrees.

While national polls suggest a Democratic edge among college graduates, local issues and candidates will influence individual congressional races.