Democratic Candidates Make Gains in Texas Congressional Districts

Recent polling from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs shows Democratic candidates leading their Republican counterparts in three Texas congressional districts that had previously been won by President Donald Trump in 2024. Notably, one district sees a lead by double digits.

Polling Results

The survey highlights a key race in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, where Democratic nominee Tejano singer Bobby Pulido leads Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz by a margin of 50 percent to 45 percent. Trump had won this district previously by 18 points.

In the same district, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton with 50 percent to 42 percent. Previously, Republican Senator Ted Cruz had carried the district by 9 points.

The polling also includes Texas’ 28th and 34th Congressional Districts. In the 28th, Talarico leads Paxton 51 percent to 41 percent, previously a district where Cruz had a narrow win. Similarly, in the 34th District, Talarico is ahead with 53 percent to 42 percent, after Cruz secured it by 2 points previously.

Assessing the Latino Vote

“The Latino vote is the largest swing vote in America.” – Mike Madrid

Republican strategist Mike Madrid indicates an important shift, noting the political establishment’s failure to understand the Latino vote’s dynamics. The region shows an unusual split: backing Trump at the top of the ticket while choosing Democrats down-ballot, suggesting evolving voter priorities.

Madrid attributes this partly to missed economic discussions by both parties, leaving cultural values to bridge decisions. He emphasizes if Democrats address economic concerns effectively, they could reclaim these voters. A national UnidosUS poll of 3,000 Latino voters found priorities centered on living costs, economy, and health care.

Beyond Anecdotes: Supportive Polling Data

Further polling data supports these findings. A national poll by Public Opinion Strategies highlights high housing and healthcare costs as major concerns. Deportations also factor in, though less economically and more personally driven, with respondents showing discomfort with broad enforcement.

Looking Ahead to Upcoming Elections

The Texas Southern University poll is backed by other ratings adjusting in favor of Democrats in Texas. The University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised its outlook on three races, marking them as increasingly competitive for Democrats.

While surveys show a relatively tight race, with varied leads and ties between candidates in different polls, the age-divided electorate remains a significant factor. Emerson College’s data shows younger voters favoring Talarico, while older demographics lean toward Paxton.

Election analyst Nate Silver advises caution, noting historical caution from Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate run in Texas, which demonstrated potential underestimates of Democratic support. Silver projects Talarico having a slight edge, influenced by national trends favoring Democrats and controversies around Paxton.