The Current Political Climate

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, new polling data reveals challenges for President Donald Trump. Civiqs’ online tracking poll of registered voters shows noticeable shifts in public opinion since Trump started his second term on January 20, 2025.

Presidential Approval Ratings

On a national level, Trump’s approval rating stands at 35%, while disapproval reaches 59%. This results in a net approval of -24. State-specific data mirrors this trend, with Trump experiencing decreased support in battleground states and maintaining support in traditionally Republican regions.

Battleground States

In crucial battleground states, Trump’s approval is underwater. Approvals and disapprovals in these regions are as follows:

• Arizona: -14
• Florida: -10
• Georgia: -23
• Nevada: -23
• North Carolina: -16
• Ohio: -17
• Pennsylvania: -18
• Wisconsin: -18

Once favorable regions like Florida and Ohio have seen approval declines, impacting their political landscapes ahead of midterm elections.

The Republican Heartland

Trump’s robust support remains in Republican-dominated states like Wyoming, which posts a +22 net approval. North Dakota and West Virginia show +15, while Alabama reaches +8. Arkansas and South Dakota share a positive margin of +8.

Supporters in these states consistently backed Trump in the 2024 elections; however, margins have shrunk since the start of his second term.

Changing Dynamics

Wyoming’s approval rating dropped from +47 to +22, illustrating shifting dynamics. North Dakota’s decrease from +34 to +15, and West Virginia from +35 to +15, underscore changing political sentiments. Kentucky now stands at -7 after initially showing +23.

Democratic-Leaning States

Trump’s lowest ratings appear in traditionally Democratic states. Hawaii posts a net approval of -60, followed by Vermont with -52 and Maryland at -51. Other notable disapproval ratings include:

• Massachusetts: -47
• California: -43
• Connecticut: -41
• Washington: -41
• New York: -40

Opposition remains firm in these regions throughout Trump’s tenure.

Demographic Trends

Demographic data offers insight into approval trends:

• Younger voters (18-34): 22% approval, 70% disapproval
• Older voters (35-49): 28% approval, 63% disapproval

Independents show 29% approval versus 62% disapproval. Women disapprove by a margin of 64-30, compared to men at 52% disapproval and 41% approval.

Education levels reveal differing opinions, with postgraduates’ approval at 23% versus non-college graduates at 39%.

Swing States and Partisan Geography

In battleground territories, several states have experienced steep declines:

• Ohio: Shifted from +8 to -17
• Nevada: Transitioned from 0 to -23
• Florida: Moved from +9 to -10

These transitions demonstrate tougher challenges for Republicans in pivotal regions.

Persistent Political Geography

States remain situated close to the divide between positive and negative territories:

• Tennessee and Utah: Net zero
• Indiana and Nebraska: -2
• Kansas: +2
• Montana and Oklahoma: +4

The map maintains familiar party divisions but with narrower margins.

Comparisons With Previous Midterms

Trump faces a more challenging landscape than before the 2018 midterm elections. Previously, his approval stood at 43% with disapproval at 53%, for a net rating of -10. The current -24 rating indicates a deterioration heading into the elections.

White House Remarks

The White House downplays polling changes, emphasizing accomplishments in employment, inflation control, and housing. According to spokesperson Davis Ingle, no other President has achieved as much for the American people.

Ingle asserts Trump continues working on creating jobs, cooling inflation, and making housing more affordable.