Florida Senate Race Between Moody and Nixon in a Tight Contest

Florida Republican Senator Ashley Moody’s campaign team alerted supporters via email about the tight race with Democrat Angie Nixon. Two recent opinion polls suggest the race is evenly matched. If Nixon, a Florida state representative, can capture the seat previously held by Marco Rubio, it would mark a significant win for Democrats in their pursuit to control the Senate during the November midterms. No Democrat has won statewide in Florida since 2018, and Republicans have a considerable voter registration advantage.

Poll Results

The Moody campaign described the situation as ‘two dead heats’ in their email, pointing out that Trump-backed Moody was on par with Nixon in the highly anticipated Senate special election of 2026. The surveys mentioned, executed by St. Pete Polls and Change Research, showed the two candidates are nearly evenly matched.

The St. Pete Polls survey, involving 913 likely Florida voters, indicated Moody slightly leading by 0.4 percentage points—45.2% to Nixon’s 44.8%. Conducted via automated calls and peer-to-peer SMS from September 15-17, this poll carried a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points. Although Nixon led among independents and younger voters, Moody had an edge with non-Hispanic white voters and seniors. However, caution is advised due to small demographic sample sizes.

Another survey by Change Research of 1,107 likely voters for Freedom Project USA on September 7-9 reported a deadlock, with both candidates receiving 47% of the vote. This poll had a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.

In contrast, a Quantus Insights poll of 733 likely voters from September 8-10 showed Moody with 50% over Nixon’s 43%, with a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points.

Political Context

Despite tied polls, the Republicans’ registration advantage favors Moody and aligns with past recent election performances. In 2024, Trump won Florida decisively, and Republican Senate candidates outperformed Democrats significantly in 2024 and 2022. According to Decision Desk HQ, Moody retains a strong prospect of victory, holding a 78% chance.

RealClearPolling’s average reveals Moody leading Nixon by five points—48.3% to Nixon’s 43.3%.

Primary Surprises

Moody secured her Senate post in January 2025 after appointment by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, filling Rubio’s space after he became Trump’s Secretary of State. Nixon’s victory over Alexander Vindman in the Democratic primary was a remarkable achievement, especially given Nixon’s campaign was outspent by Vindman’s efforts, who came from a military background.

The Senate balance currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats caucusing members. A Democratic win in November could significantly limit Trump’s legislative freedom during his term’s latter years.