Impact of Debates on the Midterm Elections

The midterm debate season provides candidates a platform to engage directly with rivals and appeal to voters as Election Day approaches. Yet, the influence of these debates on election outcomes remains in question. Recently, Senate candidates debated in key battleground states such as Maine, Iowa, and Georgia. However, notable Senate races in Texas and Ohio, and gubernatorial races in Nevada and Ohio, have yet to stage such debates.

Despite concerns over low television viewership and potential missteps on stage, experts argue that debates still carry weight. A strong performance or serious mistake can significantly affect a political campaign. For instance, a weak debate showing against then-President Trump negatively impacted Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign, leading to his eventual withdrawal.

An excellent or poor debate performance can be crucial for candidates, as demonstrated by historic debates like John F. Kennedy versus Richard Nixon in 1960.

This cycle, some candidates have reduced their debate participation. Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for governor in Georgia, debated Republican Rick Jackson but later answered questions alone when Jackson chose not to participate. Similarly, in Nevada, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Aaron Ford faced an empty podium after Governor Joe Lombardo declined the debate.

Some candidates aim to highlight their opponents’ unwillingness to debate, hoping to influence voters who value public debates. Craig Hennigan of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, suggests that presenting oneself publicly in debates is seen as vital for democracy by many voters.

The goal for candidates is not just to capture the live audience’s attention but to resonate with voters across digital platforms. Viral moments on social media can potentially sway public opinion. Aaron Kall from the University of Michigan emphasizes the hope for debate moments that have widespread online impact.

Some Democrats, like Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, have chosen not to debate Republican opponents, focusing instead on alternative campaign strategies. Despite fewer debates this cycle, there remains a discernible demand for these forums, according to Hennigan.

Debates offer candidates a challenging but valuable opportunity to engage with their constituency. According to Brett O’Donnell, who has prepared numerous GOP candidates, debates foster healthy democratic discourse. O’Donnell advocates for Republican candidates to participate, citing strong arguments within their platform.

In Iowa, Senate GOP candidate Ashley Hinson criticized President Trump’s policy move during her debate. Similarly, Michigan’s Senate GOP candidate Mike Rogers disclosed his steps to negotiate trade issues, illustrating how candidates use debate platforms to differentiate themselves from current administration policies.

Debates can also highlight campaign vulnerabilities. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham’s comment on national security became a focal point in subsequent debates. Aaron Kall reiterates that well-performed debates can influence undecided or low-information voters, especially in the final weeks leading up to an election.

The enduring demand for debates suggests the necessity of evolving formats to engage younger audiences who seek vibrant discussions on platforms like Twitch. As midterms approach, candidates continue to navigate the benefits and risks of debate participation in shaping their public image and campaign success.