Iowa Senate Election: Turek vs. Hinson

The latest Marist poll indicates a lead for Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s Senate election. This competitive race parallels conditions from Democrats’ last statewide Senate win 18 years ago. According to the poll, released on Tuesday, 50% of Iowa’s registered voters support Turek, while 42% back Hinson. The survey included 1,050 registered voters contacted via phone, text, or online between September 17 and 20.

Turek and Hinson vie to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, a contest crucial for U.S. Senate control. Prior to the poll’s release, Hinson distanced herself from President Trump by calling for the end of the Iran war, despite Trump’s endorsement last September. The last Democratic win in an Iowa Senate election was with Senator Tom Harkin defeating Republican Christopher Reed 18 years ago. Since then, Republicans Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley have held Iowa’s Senate seats.

This year’s midterm elections may shift control of the House and Senate. Republican candidates contend with public concerns about the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs, and the Iran war. Although Iowa has favored Republicans in Senate races since 2008, the state has historically supported presidential candidates from both major parties. Trump won Iowa in the past three presidential elections, while Obama secured wins twice prior. On Tuesday, prediction market Polymarket labeled the Iowa election a toss-up, with Turek holding a 48% chance of winning.

Newsweek sought comments from Turek and Hinson’s campaigns on Tuesday. Comparing the current political climate to the 2008 election, economic anxiety is a major parallel. The 2008 financial crisis drove concerns similar to today’s rising prices. Iowa’s farmers face challenges from tariffs, the Iran war, and fuel costs.

Drew Myers, Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson, told Newsweek, “Ashley Hinson is losing because Iowans are tired of corrupt politicians benefiting themselves and donors. Hinson voted seven times to continue the Iran war, worsening fuel costs as Big Oil profits.” Myers also accused Hinson of significantly increasing her net worth since entering Congress, while raising prices on gas, groceries, and healthcare.

Aware of her political risk, Hinson advocates for ending the Iran war and implementing relief measures to lower costs, like suspending gas tax and reinstating biodiesel tax credit. Turek criticized Hinson for voting to continue the war despite her recent public stance.

The conflict in Iran mirrors 2008 when the Iraq War was pivotal in elections. Obama opposed the Iraq invasion, while McCain defended U.S. war decisions. Despite similarities between Iowa’s political climate and the 2008 race, differences remain. Unlike the Iraq War’s troop involvement, U.S. involvement in the Iran war has been more limited. Harkin was an experienced incumbent in 2008, while 2008 was not a midterm election.

More polls are expected leading up to the November 3 election, offering further insight into Turek’s lead and campaign dynamics. Both campaigns will likely increase efforts and expenditures to sway voters. The outcome of the Senate race remains uncertain, but Iowa emerges as a key battleground in this election cycle.