JD Vance Trails Democratic Contenders in 2028 Election Polls

Early Polling Results

With the 2028 presidential election over two years away, Vice President JD Vance is behind four potential Democratic opponents in early general election polls, holding a narrow lead over one. A polling average from Race to the WH shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Democratic Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff ahead of Vance in hypothetical matchups. Buttigieg leads 48.5% to 43.9%, and Ossoff is slightly ahead at 48.5% to 44.1%. Although Ossoff has stated he has no intention of running in 2028, his numbers remain strong.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris also has a lead over Vance, at 48.3% to 44.4%. Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a narrower lead, 45.5% to 43.6%. Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the only one trailing Vance, at 42% to his 44.9%. No candidate has officially announced a run for 2028 yet. Potential Democratic candidates include Buttigieg, Ossoff, Ocasio-Cortez, Harris, and Newsom. Vance has indicated he will decide his plans after the midterms.

Buttigieg’s Lead and Rising Profile

Buttigieg currently has the largest lead over Vance among Democrats tested. Emerson surveys behind the Race to the WH averages show Buttigieg gaining support. In this matchup, 8% of voters remain undecided. Buttigieg also holds a five-point lead over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Republican viewed alongside Vance as a possible top contender. Ossoff and Newsom’s leads over Rubio are narrower, while Harris trails him by five points despite leading Vance.

Last year, the situation was different. Emerson’s July 2025 poll had Vance slightly ahead of Buttigieg, with 13% undecided. According to Emerson, 13% of voters are persuadable, while 87% have a party preference. Buttigieg’s status in the Democratic field remains strong, leading Emerson’s July poll with 19% and August’s Quantus Insights poll with 25.7%. A New Hampshire poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center also showed him leading at 25%.

Ossoff’s Performance

Ossoff matches Buttigieg’s lead over Vance and has a three-point lead over Rubio. His national profile has risen, although he received less attention last year. Ossoff’s numbers have been strong recently. Quantus Insights in August showed him at 21.3%, behind Buttigieg and ahead of Ocasio-Cortez. He leads among Democrats leaning towards the party at 33.5%.

Prediction markets also view Ossoff as competitive. Kalshi places him at 17%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 16% and Newsom at 14%. Polymarket has him at 17%, slightly behind Ocasio-Cortez at 18%.

Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez

Ocasio-Cortez is the only Democrat trailing Vance in current averages. In Emerson’s August survey, she lost to both Vance and Rubio. Excluding undecided voters narrows the gap to 51.9% for Vance and 48.1% for Ocasio-Cortez. Quantus shows her leading among women and younger voters, while Vance leads among men, older voters, and those without a college degree. Ocasio-Cortez leads among minorities and urban voters.

The only recent poll showing her ahead was in December, where she led Vance 51% to 49%. She commented on this, asserting her capability to surpass him.

Shifts in Polling

Over 13 months, Buttigieg has gained six points and Newsom eight points over Vance. Ocasio-Cortez gained a small amount, within the margin of error. Previously undecided voters have decreased, favoring Democrats rather than evenly dividing. Ossoff was not featured a year prior.

Among Republican primary voters, Vance’s support changed. His backing in Emerson’s February poll was at 52%, dropping to 36% by May. Rubio matched him closely, with Vance leading 39% to 38% in July. Emerson’s Spencer Kimball noted a shift toward Rubio.

Vance has not detailed his future plans beyond the midterms, expressing intentions to discuss them with his family. Rubio stated he will support Vance if he runs for president. Trump has shown confidence in them both, suggesting a potential ticket.

Political Environment and Prediction Markets

The political environment has shifted. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by seven to 11 points in Emerson’s surveys, and Trump’s approval remains in the high 30s to low 40s.

Prediction markets show Vance’s strong odds for the Republican nomination, trailing Rubio in overall presidential chances. Kalshi places Vance at 22%-23% for winning the White House, Polymarket at 20.7%-20.8%. His numbers have declined since 2025, whereas Rubio’s odds tripled, lending favor to Democrats in the 2028 race. Kalshi forecasts Democrats at 60% and Republicans at 40%, while Polymarket sees a 67% to 34% split.