New Hampshire Senate Race: Chris Pappas Faces Polling Challenges Against John Sununu

Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is encountering a challenge in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race against former Senator John Sununu, a Republican. The race in the Granite State is critical for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Both Pappas and Sununu are considered leaders to secure their party’s nominations to replace the retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

In New Hampshire, which narrowly backed Vice President Kamala Harris by approximately 3 points in 2024, Republicans view the race as a possible pickup due to Sununu’s candidacy, who served from 2003 to 2009. Democrats are optimistic that Pappas, representing a swing district, is well-positioned to win, especially given voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump.

Recent polling shows Sununu slightly ahead of Pappas. Despite forecasts favoring Democrats, these polls signal a potential risk as they aim to secure a Senate majority. Pappas’ campaign manager, Rachel Petri, emphasized Pappas’ commitment to engaging with voters in contrast to Sununu.

Pappas is dedicated to interacting with voters, while Sununu relies on external financial support, Petri stated.

According to a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll, Sununu holds 37 percent support compared to Pappas’ 36 percent, with 23 percent undecided among 600 surveyed likely voters from August 27-30. Another University of New Hampshire poll displayed Sununu leading, 45 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 1,878 likely voters from August 20-24.

Earlier polls showed Pappas leading Sununu by single digits. A Saint Anselm College poll from August 17-18 had Pappas leading Sununu by 7 points, whereas a Peak Insights poll demonstrated a closer race, with Pappas just 1 point ahead.

Pappas and Sununu focus on affordability and living costs; healthcare and corruption are key issues for Pappas while Sununu addresses affordability and criticizes the war in Iran.

The upcoming New Hampshire primary on September 8 will determine party nominees. Sununu is up against Scott Brown in the GOP primary, while Pappas faces Karishma Manzur from the Democratic side. Prediction markets still favor Democrats in the Senate race.

Prediction markets, as of recent data, show Democrats have a strong chance of victory in New Hampshire, despite close polls. These markets map trader sentiments but aren’t always predictive of the future.

A Republican victory in New Hampshire could disrupt Democratic plans to win the Senate. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need four seats to gain majority control.

In the broader picture, Democrats defend swing seats in Georgia and Michigan and see Maine and North Carolina as potential pickups. Winning New Hampshire is crucial; losing it increases the challenge of flipping additional seats.

New Hampshire, a challenging state for Republicans at the federal level, backs GOP governors yet leans Democratic federally. While competitive, the state is seen as moderately libertarian.

Key regions like Manchester and Nashua support Democrats, whereas suburban and rural areas lean Republican. Independents remain pivotal in statewide elections.

Understanding New Hampshire’s voter landscape is crucial for candidates, with numerous independents making their support essential for election victory.