Progressives Aim for Momentum in New Hampshire Senate Race

Progressives are rallying to propel Karishma Manzur forward in the Democratic primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, though Representative Chris Pappas maintains a lead in both polls and prediction markets. New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning swing state, backing former Vice President Kamala Harris by around 3 points in 2024, making it a key battleground in New England. The race gains significance with Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen retiring.

Democrats believe anti-Trump sentiment nationally helps their chances, while Republicans see opportunity with former Senator John Sununu as a candidate. Recent polling suggests a close race. The upcoming primary on Tuesday is crucial, with Pappas currently seen as the frontrunner. Progressives hope Manzur will surprise, as indicated by a tightening race in a University of New Hampshire poll.

Both campaigns were approached for comments by Newsweek.

Chris Pappas vs. Karishma Manzur: Poll Insights

The latest independent poll from the University of New Hampshire shows Pappas leading Manzur by 13 points, 47% to 34%, surveying 2,143 residents (881 Democratic primary voters) from August 20-24, with a margin of error of ±2.1 points. Pappas’ lead has decreased from earlier this year.

Other polls show varying leads for Pappas. A Saint Anselm College poll put Pappas up by 31 points, while a GQR poll showed him ahead by 56 points. Pappas, a moderate, previously served on the New Hampshire Executive Council, unlike Manzur who aligns with the progressive movement, advocating for Medicare for All and criticizing Israel.

Pappas Dominates in Prediction Markets

Pappas holds a 98% likelihood of defeating Manzur according to prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday. These markets let traders engage with political outcomes using money to project probabilities, but they aren’t foolproof in prediction accuracy.

Republican Strategies in New Hampshire

Recent polls indicate a competitive race, with Sununu in a statistical tie with Pappas in the general election. A recent Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll shows Sununu at 37% to Pappas’ 36%, and other candidates below 4%. The UNH poll also sees a tight race, but other polls favor Pappas slightly.

No public polls compare Manzur against Sununu, adding uncertainty to potential match-ups.

Pappas Raises Concerns

Pappas has voiced urgency in fundraising emails, highlighting competitive dynamics in New Hampshire, a state viewed crucial by strategists. Former Democratic Party chair Kathy Sullivan emphasizes the need for focused efforts to secure New Hampshire for the Democrats.

Sununu’s political heritage plays a role, with family members holding gubernatorial titles previously. This adds complexity, as Democrats see it as a potentially tough race despite past Democratic successes.

Democratic Challenges and Opportunities

New Hampshire remains politically divided. While favoring Democrats federally in recent years, Republicans frequently win gubernatorial races. Winning independent voters, forming the largest group of registered voters, is crucial for both parties.

Republicans aim to flip the Senate seat, which would challenge Democrats’ attempt to regain control. The Democrats’ current path to a Senate majority involves targeting seats in states that narrowly supported Trump in 2024.

Pollsters view New Hampshire’s Senate race as Lean Democratic. The upcoming primary will be pivotal in setting the stage for November’s election. Voting hours across the state vary, with larger municipalities closing at 7 p.m. ET.