Talarico Gains Momentum in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico is making notable progress in the Texas Senate race. Several prediction markets and election forecasters are increasingly viewing the contest as competitive, challenging the state’s long-standing Republican preference.

Prediction Markets and Forecasts

Kalshi, a prediction market, currently gives Democratic State Representative Talarico a 59% chance of winning the November election. This compares to a 41% chance for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polymarket offers similar odds, with Talarico at 60% and Paxton at 41%. These percentages sometimes add up to more than 100% due to market spreads.

Fox News has updated its Power Rankings, changing the Texas Senate race status from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up.” Similarly, The Cook Political Report now labels the race as a “Toss-Up,” having previously listed it as “Lean Republican.” Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model has also classified Texas as “Lean Democrat,” giving Talarico a 70% chance of winning, compared to Paxton’s 30%.

Texas remains a very red state, but Ken Paxton’s scandals and Talarico’s fundraising provide a candidate quality edge for the Democrats, especially supported by polling evidence, Silver wrote.

Polling Data

Recent poll data reflects the competitiveness of the race. RealClearPolling, which compiles data from various surveys, places Talarico at 47.6%, with Paxton at 45%. Newsweek has contacted both campaigns for comments but has not yet received responses.

Social Media and Campaign Strategies

The heated contest includes exchanges between candidates on the campaign trail and social media. Talarico highlighted a spelling mistake in a deleted social media post by Paxton, who misspelled the community of Cypress as “Cyprus.” Talarico remarked, “It’s Cypress, not ‘Cyprus.’ But for all the time you spend on luxury vacations in Europe, it’s no surprise you don’t know Texas.”

Potential Historical Win

If victorious, Talarico would become the first Democrat since 1988 to win a Senate seat in Texas. Although the state typically leans Republican, Talarico has mounted a strong challenge against Paxton, who defeated Republican Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff in May. Paxton has aligned with President Donald Trump, who supports his Senate campaign.

Talarico positions himself as a faith-driven, pragmatic Democrat, focusing his campaign on affordability and economic matters. Meanwhile, Paxton, entering the general election, faces a mixed record, including a 2023 impeachment and acquittal, a 2024 resolution in a securities-fraud case, bribery and corruption allegations, and acknowledgment of an extramarital affair. Paxton denies any wrongdoing in these cases.