Texas Senate Race: Talarico’s Surprise Lead Over Paxton

James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate, is experiencing a significant 28-point increase in vote share within Texas State Senate District 9. This comes from a private poll reported by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report. This shift indicates potential trouble for Republicans in the state, marking a critical change since 1988.

Talarico, currently a state lawmaker, challenges Republican Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas. Paxton secured his party’s nomination by defeating GOP Senator John Cornyn in May, backed by former President Donald Trump. The Democrats aim to gain control of the House and Senate in November to limit Trump’s legislative influence during the last two years of his second term.

Internal Poll Findings

On Monday, the Quorum Report revealed an internal Republican poll where Talarico leads with 52% of the vote in Texas State Senate District 9. Paxton trails at 41%. This provides Talarico with an 11-point advantage. In contrast, Trump had previously won this district by a 17-point margin against Kamala Harris in 2024, showcasing a 28-point movement away from the GOP since then.

District 9 encompasses parts of Tarrant County, including sections of Fort Worth. Earlier in January, the district witnessed a significant political upset when Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points, marking a Democratic win for the first time since 1991.

The survey polled 600 likely voters from September 10 to September 15 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Quorum Report chose to release the poll results without revealing their source, describing it as a decision to enhance campaign understanding, despite the atypical approach for pollsters.

Broad Polling Trends

In recent polling activity, Talarico leads Paxton in eight different polls simultaneously for the first time. An Emerson College poll, conducted from September 12 to September 14, gives Talarico a slight one-point lead, with 47% compared to Paxton’s 46%.

A Siena College/ReconMR poll from September 8 to September 11 shows Talarico ahead with 49% while Paxton has 43%. Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket also favor Talarico, with Kalshi assigning him a 59% chance of victory and Polymarket at 62%, against Paxton’s 41% and 39% respectively.

Both candidates are intensifying their fundraising efforts. Paxton recently received $5 million from MAGA Inc., a major pro-Trump political action committee, as per Federal Election Commission records.

Paxton’s Controversies

Paxton has faced controversy within Texas Republican circles, having been impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in 2023 over alleged misuse of power, although he was acquitted by the state Senate. In the May primary, Trump’s endorsement helped Paxton defeat Cornyn, who had been a senator since 2002.