The Changing Global Order: A Positive Outlook for Former American Allies

By Stephen Marche
Stephen Marche recently authored “The Next Civil War.” He shared his perspectives from Toronto, his place of residence.

The Transition of Global Alliances in the Wake of U.S. Policy Changes

The world order’s disruption is progressing better than anticipated. Initially, there was anger directed at America’s actions, especially following President Trump’s call for the annexation of Canada, threats towards Greenland, and tariffs on allies. His moves to weaken NATO, noticeable at the recent Ankara meeting, have evolved into a new sentiment among former American allies: optimistic determination.

In chess, the concept that a threat is more significant than its execution applies to geopolitics. The fear of U.S. withdrawal from global leadership was daunting, but reality signals a fresh start.

Canada’s Response to American Trade Pressure

Canada was the first to understand the changing dynamics due to America’s trade aggression under Trump’s administration. The Bank of Canada investigated a scenario where the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all Canadian exports. This would potentially slow Canada’s GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points, a challenging but manageable adjustment.

“A disaster, to be sure, but not the end of the world.” — Canadian economist

Despite turmoil, Canadian exports to the U.S. fell by over 30 billion Canadian dollars, equating to a 5% decrease. Yet, demand elsewhere compensated the loss, with exports increasing by 7 billion dollars worldwide, including services.

The fundamental point remains: regardless of threats, essential commodities like aluminum, oil, and potash will find buyers globally.

European Equities and Defense Strategies

Achievements are not reserved for Canada. European equities have outperformed American stocks in 2025 and surged early in 2026. The European Defense Industrial Strategy, launched in 2024, has reinvigorated military spending on the continent. Additionally, Europe’s anti-coercion tool, a mechanism for swift counter tariffs, pushed Trump to retract threats concerning Greenland.

This development empowers Europe with strategic leverage akin to the Strait of Hormuz, fostering resilience against U.S. threats.

Declining Influence of American Military Endeavors

Recent events underscore the waning efficacy of American military threats. When the U.S. engages in military actions for geopolitical goals, these aims often remain unrealized. For instance, the U.S. has struggled in conflicts like the one with Iran, where the regime persists despite setbacks. The Gulf states have observed firsthand the true value of America’s security guarantees.

During the NATO meeting in Ankara, Trump criticized allies, notably Spain, while reigniting calls for Greenland control. Despite such rhetoric, leaders from Spain and Denmark perceive these as mere threats. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney comments on how Trump’s influence in NATO’s defense spending discussions may reflect American military retreat rather than dominance.

Overall, America’s support seems less substantial than before and no longer guarantees safety to its allies.