Putin’s Electoral Challenge Amid Ukraine Conflict

As Russia prepares for its parliamentary elections, Vladimir Putin faces a significant challenge. His party, United Russia, is not expected to lose dominance, unlike American representatives concerned about the midterms. Years of authoritarian control ensure his party does not need extensive campaigning. Yet, even for a controlled election, caution is necessary due to Ukraine’s recent military successes.

Ukraine’s Impact on Russia

Ukraine’s military campaign has inflicted damage on Russian assets, targeting oil refineries, energy infrastructure, and facilities of Wildberries, a major e-commerce company. These actions have strained Russian resources, causing fuel shortages and impacting revenues. The Russian front may hold, but Ukrainian forces continue to pressure with alarming efficiency.

The Mobilization Dilemma

In September 2022, Russia called up 300,000 reservists, leading to a public exodus. Around 66,000 Russians fled to the EU in a single week, reflecting a notable increase. Many opted for Kazakhstan and Georgia. On the battlefield, Russia faces severe losses, though exact figures remain unclear. Meanwhile, rumors suggest a potential new mobilization, possibly involving 300,000 to 500,000 soldiers, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russian officials have sought to quash mobilization rumors. However, recruitment efforts continue. The State Duma permitted more individuals with criminal records to join the military and increased recruitment incentives at universities. A nationwide mobilization before elections poses significant political risks for Putin.

Economic Strains

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure have drawn global attention, especially those targeting Wildberries’ logistics. The damage has led to increased costs and disrupted business operations. More pressing for Putin are attacks on oil and gas refineries, which have caused widespread fuel shortages. Russian gasoline production fell by around a third compared to the previous year.

NEST warned of dwindling domestic gasoline stocks if trends persist. Russian exports are also affected, with June’s oil-product exports hitting a record low. Economic growth has stalled, and inflation is expected to rise. The government introduced new tax policies, including VAT increases and tighter business regulations.

Political Ramifications

Despite economic and military pressures, Putin’s party remains poised for success in the upcoming election. United Russia controls over 300 of the 450 Duma seats, providing a legislative supermajority. Public frustration exists among pro-war constituencies and small business owners, but it seems unlikely to affect election outcomes significantly.

United Russia aims for 55 percent of the vote, though forecasts have been adjusted to as low as 45 percent. Polls depict a declining public sentiment, with many Russians skeptical of economic conditions and living standards. While state-controlled polls show similar trends, Putin is expected to maintain his political machine.

Ultimately, Ukraine is not relying on Russia’s elections to challenge Putin’s authority.