Michigan Senate and Governor Races: El-Sayed and Benson Lead in Polls

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a slim lead over Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race. This is according to a recent poll by the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP), a firm recognized for its accuracy in past elections. Democrats face a challenging electoral map in the upcoming 2026 elections, needing to gain four Senate seats while defending their own incumbents. They see voter concerns about the economy, the Iran conflict, and President Trump’s declining approval as opportunities for Senate gains. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

The poll, showing El-Sayed leading, has stirred debate within the Democratic Party. While El-Sayed’s primary victory against U.S. Representative Haley Stevens energized progressives, some Democrats question his ability to defeat Rogers in a pivotal race. With under 100 days to the election, both candidates are intensifying voter mobilization efforts in Michigan.

Poll Results

The TIPP survey, involving 1,528 registered Michigan voters, shows El-Sayed leading Rogers 45% to 42%. Seven percent prefer another candidate, and six percent remain undecided. Satisfaction with El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee stands at 61%, with 29% dissatisfied, and 10% undecided. On favorability, 39% view El-Sayed positively, 44% negatively, and 17% are unsure. Rogers received similar ratings, with 37% viewing him favorably and 42% unfavorably.

The poll, conducted from August 6 to 10, has a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points. TIPP has been praised for its electoral accuracy, rightly predicting presidential outcomes in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin rates TIPP highly, placing it among top pollsters after The Washington Post and Research & Polling Inc.

Michigan Senate Race Dynamics

This race has garnered national attention as El-Sayed and Rogers contest the open Senate seat following Democrat Gary Peters’ retirement. Democrats have traditionally held the seat, yet Michigan’s political landscape shows no clear partisanship, often leading to closely contested elections. Historical voting changes, such as supporting Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary, then narrowly voting for Trump, highlight Michigan’s battleground status.

Recent elections reflect this tight competition. Trump took Michigan in 2024 with 49.7% over Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.3%. In 2020, Biden won against Trump 50.6% to 47.8%. Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by about 10,700 votes. Trump endorses Rogers. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball categorize the race as a “toss-up.”

Other Poll Insights

The Senate race remains competitive, with polls often showing only minor differences between El-Sayed and Rogers. A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered voters found Rogers leading El-Sayed 51% to 47%, with 2% undecided. Conducted within the same timeframe, this poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

A July EPIC-MRA poll suggested Rogers had a 3-point lead over El-Sayed, polling 46% to 43%. This survey of 600 had a margin of error of ±4%. Mitchell Research & Communications also saw a tie at 45% for each candidate.

Prediction markets currently favor El-Sayed, with Kalshi giving him a 57% chance of winning the Senate seat, while Polymarket puts him at 60% versus Rogers’ 40%.

Michigan Governor’s Race

The TIPP poll also shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James 53% to 37%. This race is crucial as Benson and James vie to replace the term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The outcome will indicate whether Democrats can sustain their strength statewide in Michigan, known for close election results.

Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state since 2019, competes against James, a Republican congressman and former Senate candidate endorsed by Trump. An August Fox News poll showed Benson maintaining a 5-point lead over James, 52% to 47%, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. With under three months to Election Day, Michigan’s Senate and gubernatorial races promise to be battlegrounds as candidates push to secure voter support.