Trump Faces Declining Approval Ratings Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump criticized recent surveys as “fake polls” on Monday, amidst a decline in his approval rating, which has significant implications for the upcoming midterm elections. Historically, a president’s low approval rating can lead to losses for the party in power during midterms. Democrats aim to frame the elections as a referendum on Trump’s policies, hoping for a victory in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Key Issues Affecting Approval

Economic conditions and foreign policy are heavily influencing public opinion towards Trump. Although he centered his 2024 campaign on making life more affordable, inflation remains a significant concern for Americans. The Iran war, which has driven up gas prices nationwide, also impacts his approval ratings negatively.

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.

Accusations of Fake Polls

Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with polling in a Truth Social post on Monday. He accused “Radical Left Democrats” of releasing unprecedented levels of “Fake Polls.” He described these as “Demoralization Operations” intended to discourage Republicans from voting. Trump claimed that genuine polls appeared “tremendous” for his administration, and the national spirit remained at a high.

Current Approval Ratings

Since his return to the Office in January 2025, Trump’s approval has significantly declined. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates a 65% disapproval rate, with 33% of respondents approving of his performance. This survey, conducted with 1,215 adults nationwide from August 21 to 24, 2026, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Another poll, by Echelon Insights, showed 40% of Americans approving and 59% disapproving of Trump. It surveyed 1,002 likely voters with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

A YouGov and The Economist poll found 35% approval and 61% disapproval. This poll involved 1,611 adults with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. A Morning Consult poll indicated that 54% disapproved and 43% approved of Trump, conducted with 2,201 registered voters.

State-by-State Analysis

Civiqs reports shifts in Trump’s approval ratings across states, indicating declines even in states he won easily in 2024. The following map depicts his approval ratings by state.

Comparative Popularity

On RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate, Trump’s approval rating stood at 39.5% compared to 57.2% disapproval. This is lower than during his first term, where approval averaged 43.5% and disapproval 52.6%. It’s also weaker than former President Joe Biden, who had an approval of 41.3% and disapproval of 55.5% at a similar point in his presidency.

Nate Silver’s aggregate shows a slight increase from Trump’s net approval low of -20.6 to -19.5 but still far from popular. During his first term, Trump’s net approval was -11.6, similar to Biden’s at the same point in his term.

Impact on Midterm Elections

Trump’s declining approval rating concerns Republicans ahead of the midterms. Democrats hope to capitalize on his unpopularity, aiming to expand their reach to more conservative areas.

Analysts favor Democrats to regain control of the House, as they need only a few seats, given the Republicans’ slim majority of 218-212. However, gaining control of the Senate presents more challenges due to limited opportunities, with Republicans holding a 53-47 majority and crucial seats available in more conservative states.

Democrats see even traditionally Republican states as competitive, largely due to Trump’s unpopularity.

In previous elections, trends have shown significant swings in control. In 2022, Republicans gained ground during Biden’s term, whereas Democrats saw major gains in 2018 under Trump. In 2010, Republicans made significant gains during Obama’s first midterm.

Prediction markets reflect a strong position for Democrats in the House, with high chances of a win. For the Senate, predictions are evenly split between the parties.

Future Outlook

Trump’s approval rating will remain a critical indicator as the November 3, 2026, midterms approach. Key issues like economic conditions and the Iran war’s developments will continue to influence Americans’ perspectives on Trump and his policies.

For further comments or inquiries on this story, contact Newsweek editors Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas.