Potential Formation of Tropical Storm Fay in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that an Atlantic Ocean disturbance east of the United States might develop into a tropical storm within the next week. This comes as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been notably calm. No hurricanes have been reported so far this year.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will continue until November 30. Earlier in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipated a below-average season for the Atlantic, estimating eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. So far, there have been five tropical storms, with the latest being Tropical Storm Edouard, identified on August 31.

The occurrence of an El Niño event has significantly influenced this sluggish season. El Niño is characterized by warmer sea temperatures and reduced trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Predictions suggest that El Niño will intensify through the year, with a 90% likelihood of it becoming “very strong” in the fall and winter.

The impact of El Niño is more pronounced in the U.S. during colder months. However, it affects both Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. In the Atlantic, most tropical storms transpire between mid-August and October, but El Niño can decrease their activity by increasing wind shear, which can dismantle storm systems before their development.

Conversely, warmer waters and reduced wind shear in the Pacific can increase storm formation. Although El Niño might have contributed to the current quiet state of the Atlantic season, the NHC is observing a new disturbance near Bermuda, which may form into a tropical storm soon.

Details on Potential Tropical Storm Fay

The impending tropical storm in the Atlantic would be named Fay. According to the NHC, there is a 40% chance that the current disturbance could transform into a tropical storm within a week. As of Monday, the area of concern was situated 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, exhibiting disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The forecast indicates that by mid-week, environmental conditions might favor development, potentially resulting in a tropical depression by week’s end as the system slowly moves west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic.

AccuWeather experts have also rated the disturbance with a medium chance of development. AccuWeather’s report, highlighting a possible storm formation between September 17 and 21, noted, “This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere.” Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explained that such storms can descend to the surface and might become tropical or subtropical storms if conditions permit.

Though wind shear remains widespread in the Atlantic, it is less pronounced near Bermuda, potentially allowing the disturbance to develop without disruption.

Comparison with 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was also below average, with 13 named storms, including one hurricane and four major hurricanes. By this time last year, six named storms had occurred, with Erin becoming a major hurricane.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season experiences 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Named Storms of 2026 So Far

• Tropical Storm Arthur: June 17
• Tropical Storm Bertha: July 19
• Tropical Storm Cristobal: August 12
• Tropical Storm Dolly: August 27
• Tropical Storm Edouard: August 31

Three of these storms originated in the Gulf of America, affecting the Gulf states with wind and rain.

Future Developments

Currently, there are no active tropical storm watches or warnings. The NHC remains vigilant in monitoring the disturbance and will provide further updates as necessary. Despite predictions of a subdued hurricane season, forecasters emphasize that a single storm can elicit significant damage. Residents in hurricane-prone regions should stay alert to weather updates and be ready to respond if a storm emerges.