Becerra Leads California Gubernatorial Primary as Steyer and Hilton Compete for Second

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads in the California gubernatorial primary race according to a recent poll, with Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton closely contesting the second spot. The primary election is imminent, taking place on Tuesday.

California employs a top-two primary system, permitting all candidates to appear on the same ballot irrespective of party allegiance. The two highest vote-receivers proceed to the general election, regardless of party.

California is historically a Democratic stronghold in statewide elections. Kamala Harris, ex-Vice President, captured California by a 20-point margin against President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The last Republican governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served until 2011.

Who Is Running for California Governor?

Current Governor Gavin Newsom, who may seek the presidency in 2028, cannot run due to term limits. This has generated considerable national interest in the open race.

Prominent candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra – Democrat, former HHS Secretary
• Chad Bianco – Republican, Riverside County Sheriff
• Steve Hilton – Republican, political commentator, and ex-adviser to David Cameron
• Matt Mahan – Democrat, Mayor of San Jose
• Katie Porter – Democrat, former Congress representative
• Tom Steyer – Democratic businessman
• Tony Thurmond – Democrat, State Superintendent
• Antonio Villaraigosa – Democrat, former Los Angeles Mayor

Former Representative Eric Swalwell and ex-state Controller Betty Yee have exited the primary race. The field is Democrat-heavy, spanning diverse wings. Becerra aligns with traditional Democratic views, while Porter champions anti-corporate progressiveness, advocating consumer protection. Villaraigosa is perceived as centrist.

Steyer positions himself as an outsider, emphasizing climate issues and economic disparity, funding his campaign through personal wealth. Republican contenders Bianco and Hilton join from conventional conservative and populist outsider perspectives, respectively. Despite the heavy Democratic bias, the top-two system might provide opportunities. Donald Trump recently endorsed Hilton. During a Newsweek interview, Hilton remarked on the tight race, emphasizing a non-complacent approach.

What the New Poll Shows

The latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey shows Becerra with 28% support. Steyer and Hilton trail with 22% and 21%, respectively. Other candidates like Bianco, Porter, and Mahan have lower support. Undecided voters constitute 5%.

When pressed to make a decision, Becerra held his 28%, while Hilton and Steyer both reached 23%. The survey, conducted among 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling director, commented on Becerra’s standing as the frontrunner. He noted Hilton’s potential to benefit should Bianco’s support dwindle, while Steyer’s progress hinges on appealing to younger voters and restraining Becerra’s growth.

What Other Polls Show

Becerra’s support increased by 9 points from a mid-May Emerson survey. Steyer and Hilton also saw support rises of 5 and 4 points, respectively. The earlier poll showed Becerra at 19%, with Hilton and Steyer tied at 17%. Bianco, Porter, and undecided voters showed shifts.

A University of California Berkeley poll (May 19-24) showed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%. The margin of error was ±2%. A separate PPIC Survey (May 14-18) had Becerra leading with 23%, Hilton at 20%, and Steyer at 15%. The ±4.1% margin of error suggests some uncertainty.

Recent polling trends offer Democrats assurance, countering earlier polls suggesting a potential advance for Republicans Hilton and Bianco. A fragmented Democratic field had initially risked splitting the vote.